2018年经济学人 自由交流:特朗普税改面临的“道德风险”(1)

 

Finance and Economics

财经

Free exchange: Moral hazard

自由交流：道德风险

Economists² cannot avoid making value judgments³, however much they might wish to.

经济学家无法避免作出价值判断, 不管他们可能多想避免。

AMID the name-calling and bluster⁴ that mar⁵ many fights between economists are a few common tactics.

在让经济学家间的许多论战变得污浊不堪的谩骂恫吓之中，有一些常见的策略。

Belligerents⁶ may attack the theory used to support a claim, or the data analysis used to quantify an effect.

交战双方可能攻击某种理论被用来支持一种诉求，或者是某种数据分析被用来量化一种效应。

During the debate over President Donald Trump's tax bill, to take a recent example, economists bickered⁷ over which side had more credibly⁸ calculated the economic effect.

拿最近的一个例子来说，在有关特朗普税法的争论期间，经济学家围绕着哪一方更加可信地核算了经济效应展开了论战。

They did not, for the most part, argue about whether it was morally acceptable to pass a regressive tax reform after years of wage stagnation⁹ and rising inequality.

他们大都没有论及在数年的工资停滞和日渐加剧的不平等之后，通过一项累退的税收改革在道德方面是否可以接受。

To do so would strike many economists as entirely¹⁰ un-economist¹-like. Yet economics has not always been so shy about moral philosophy.

这么做将会打击许多经济学家，使他们完全不像经济学家一样。经济学并不是一直对道德哲学如此害羞。

As well as “The Wealth of Nations”, Adam Smith wrote a “Theory of Moral Sentiments”.

除了《国富论》，亚当斯密还写了《道德情操论》。

Great 20th-century economists like Paul Samuelson and Kenneth Arrow also took questions of values very seriously.

像保罗·萨缪尔森和肯尼斯·阿罗等20世界伟大的经济学家们也非常认真地对待价值观问题。

Their successors would do well to take several pages from their books.

其继承者们最好从他们的著作中拿出几页。

Modern economists have attempted to strip value-judgments out of their policy analyses.

现代经济学家试图从其政策分析中剔除价值判断。

Policies are judged on how they are likely to affect economic variables such as income and its distribution, and how those changes would affect overall welfare.

政策是根据它们如何可能影响诸如收入及其分配等经济变量而判断的，也是根据这些变化如何影响整体福利而判断的。

If the models suggest that one policy choice—a top tax rate of 40%, say, rather than 50%—leads to greater welfare than another, that is usually good enough for an economist.

如果模型表明，一项政策选择的——比如，最高税率40%，而不是50%——这就会带来比另一种税率更高的福利，这对经济学家来说通常是足够好的。

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 judgments   

判断( judgment的名词复数 )； 鉴定； 评价； 审判

参考例句：

• A peculiar austerity marked his judgments of modern life. 他对现代生活的批评带着一种特殊的苛刻。
• He is swift with his judgments. 他判断迅速。

4 bluster   

v.猛刮；怒冲冲的说；n.吓唬，怒号；狂风声

参考例句：

• We could hear the bluster of the wind and rain.我们能听到狂风暴雨的吹打声。
• He was inclined to bluster at first,but he soon dropped.起初他老爱吵闹一阵，可是不久就不做声了。

5 mar   

vt.破坏，毁坏，弄糟

参考例句：

• It was not the custom for elderly people to mar the picnics with their presence.大人们照例不参加这样的野餐以免扫兴。
• Such a marriage might mar your career.这样的婚姻说不定会毁了你的一生。

6 belligerents   

n.交战的一方（指国家、集团或个人）( belligerent的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• At long last an armistice was declared by the belligerents. 交战双方终于宣布停战。 来自辞典例句
• Yet it remains unclear whether the actual belligerents will accept it. 但真正的交战双方是否会接受还是个未知数。 来自互联网

7 bickered   

v.争吵( bicker的过去式和过去分词 )；口角；（水等）作潺潺声；闪烁

参考例句：

• The afternoon sun bickered through the leaves. 午后的阳光闪烁于树叶之间。 来自辞典例句
• They bickered over [about] some unimportant thing. 他们为芝麻小事争吵。 来自辞典例句

8 credibly   

ad.可信地；可靠地

参考例句：

• I am credibly informed that. 由可靠方面听说。
• An effective management software ensures network to run credibly. 一个高效的网管软件是网络运行的可靠保证。

9 stagnation   

n. 停滞

参考例句：

• Poor economic policies led to a long period of stagnation and decline. 糟糕的经济政策道致了长时间的经济萧条和下滑。
• Motion is absolute while stagnation is relative. 运动是绝对的，而静止是相对的。

10 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。