2018年经济学人 自由交流:特朗普税改面临的“道德风险”(2)

 

This approach is enormously valuable.

这种方式非常有价值。

It disciplines thinking, produces useful information and makes it easier to build professional consensus¹ about what is known and which questions remain unanswered.

它训练了思维，产生有用的信息，使人们更容易建立专业的共识，知道什么是已知的，哪些问题仍没有答案。

Though cost-benefit analysis is not perfect, is often the best route to getting informed experts to agree.

尽管成本收益分析法并不完美，但通常是让专家们取得一致的最佳选择。

Used in isolation², however, it can lead to trouble.

然而，如果孤立地使用它，将会带来麻烦。

In a paper presented at the annual conference of the American Economic Association (AEA) in January, Matthew Weinzierl, of Harvard University,

今年1月份，哈佛大学的马修· Weinzierl在美国经济协会（AEA）的年度会议上发表的一篇论文中指出，

notes that the world is too complicated to be modelled with anything like perfect accuracy.

世界太复杂，不能以完美的精确度来被建模。

Many knock-on effects from policy shifts are unknowable beforehand.

政策转变带来的许多连锁反应是不可知的。

He suggests that in the absence of perfect foresight³, policymakers could turn to social principles or rules that have evolved over time.

他认为，在缺乏完美预见的情形下，政策制定者可以转向社会原则或随着时间而演变的规则。

These may reflect accumulated knowledge about some choices’ unintended consequences.

这些可能反映了积累的关于某些选择的意外结果的知识。

He gives an example.

他给出了一个例子。

Governments might choose to increase redistribution based on evidence that high inequality creates feelings of envy, and envy reduces the welfare of the non rich by making them feel worse.

政府可能会选择增加再分配，基于这样的证据，高度不平等会产生嫉妒感，而嫉妒感会使非富人的福利变得更糟糕。

Yet survey evidence suggests that people are largely opposed to redistribution that is motivated by envy.

但调查证据表明，人们在很大程度上反对由嫉妒感引起的再分配。

Validating⁴ envy through tax policy could prove socially corrosive⁵, in a way that economists⁶’ models fail to capture.

通过税收政策来验证嫉妒心理可能会对社会产生腐蚀，而经济学家的模型无法捕捉到这点。

Put differently, Mr Weinzierl contends that economists should take moral concerns more seriously.

换句话说，Weinzierl先生认为经济学家应该更认真地对待道德问题。

That is something close to professional heresy⁷.

这与专业的异端邪说很接近。

1 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

2 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

3 foresight   

n.先见之明，深谋远虑

参考例句：

• The failure is the result of our lack of foresight.这次失败是由于我们缺乏远虑而造成的。
• It required a statesman's foresight and sagacity to make the decision.作出这个决定需要政治家的远见卓识。

4 validating   

v.证实( validate的现在分词 )；确证；使生效；使有法律效力

参考例句：

• His politics at home were validating his efforts in the hemisphere. 他的国内政策也有效地支持了他对本半球所做的努力。 来自辞典例句
• A number of different experimental approaches have aided in validating the concept. 许多不同的实验方法，有助于确证这种概念。 来自辞典例句

5 corrosive   

adj.腐蚀性的；有害的；恶毒的

参考例句：

• Many highly corrosive substances are used in the nuclear industry.核工业使用许多腐蚀性很强的物质。
• Many highly corrosive substances are used in the nuclear industry.核工业使用许多腐蚀性很强的物质。

6 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 heresy   

n.异端邪说；异教

参考例句：

• We should denounce a heresy.我们应该公开指责异端邪说。
• It might be considered heresy to suggest such a notion.提出这样一个观点可能会被视为异端邪说。