美国国家公共电台 NPR 美防长突访阿富汗 驻阿美军恐无法如期撤离

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made an unannounced visit to Afghanistan while on a regional tour of Asia. His visit comes just days after President Biden indicated his administration was unlikely to meet a May 1 deadline for all foreign forces to leave Afghanistan. The U.S. agreed to that in a deal with the Taliban last year. Today, Austin told reporters a review is underway of American options in the country.

美国国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀在出访亚洲期间对阿富汗进行了一次未经宣布的访问。就在他访问阿富汗的几天之前，拜登总统表示，其政府不太可能在5月1日前从阿富汗撤军，5月1日是所有外国军队撤离阿富汗的最后期限。这是美国在去年与塔利班达成的协议中同意的条款。今天，奥斯汀对记者表示，有关美国在阿富汗选择的审查正在进行。

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LLOYD AUSTIN: I'm here to listen and learn. And this has been very helpful to me, and it'll inform my participation in the review that we're undergoing here with the president.

劳埃德·奥斯汀：我是来倾听和学习的。这对我很有帮助，也会让我参与到我们和总统正在进行的审查中。

MARTIN: Here to tell us more is NPR's Diaa Hadid. She covers Afghanistan from her base in neighboring Pakistan. Diaa Hadid, welcome. Thank you for joining us.

马丁：NPR新闻的迪亚·哈迪德将带来详细报道。她在阿富汗邻国巴基斯坦报道阿富汗相关新闻。迪亚·哈迪德，欢迎你。谢谢你和我们连线。

DIAA HADID, BYLINE: Thank you, Michel.

迪亚·哈迪德连线：谢谢你，米歇尔。

MARTIN: So, Diaa, Secretary Austin's visit was kept under wraps, but what seems to be the context?

马丁：迪亚，国防部长奥斯汀访问阿富汗的行程一直处于保密状态，背景情况为何？

HADID: Well, it appears that the defense secretary wanted to see the situation for himself in Afghanistan as the Biden administration figures out what to do next because effectively here, the United States is at a fork in the road. It's got a few thousand forces left in Afghanistan and those serving with NATO.

哈迪德：国防部长似乎想亲眼看看阿富汗的局势，因为拜登政府正在考虑下一步措施，而且美国正处于岔路口。美国还有数千名军人驻守在阿富汗和北约。

It's not a lot, but withdrawing those final forces carries a great deal of risk, especially without a peace deal between the Afghan government and the Taliban because if they withdraw like that, it could cause the country to collapse deeper into war. Or it could turn Afghanistan again into a security vortex, where militants could plan attacks against the United States and our allies.

驻军人数不算太多，但撤出最后驻军会带来很大的风险，尤其是在阿富汗政府和塔利班之间未达成和平协议的情况下，因为如果在这种情况下撤军，可能会导致阿富汗陷入更深的战争。或者可能会再次将阿富汗变成安全漩涡，武装分子可以在该国策划针对美国及其盟友的袭击。

But here's the rub. If the United States doesn't withdrawal on deadline, the Taliban has promised consequences. And that could include attacking foreign forces again. They haven't done that for over a year now, since the United States and the Taliban signed that withdrawal agreement.

但有个问题。如果美国不在最后期限前撤军，塔利班已经暗示了可能产生的后果。这可能包括再次袭击外国军队。而自美国和塔利班签署撤军协议以来，他们已经一年多没有发动过这类袭击。

MARTIN: So you were telling us that Afghanistan could plunge deeper into chaos — that's the upshot — without a peace deal between the Afghan government and the Taliban. So what's the progress on that?

马丁：你刚才提到，如果阿富汗政府和塔利班之间没有达成和平协议，那阿富汗可能会陷入更深的混乱——这就是结果。这项协议有何进展？

HADID: Well, if I could just step back for a second, Michel, because it's important to unspool why a peace deal is important beyond just sounding really nice — right? — peace. But it's a deal between the Afghan government and the Taliban that will be effectively a power-sharing agreement. It should bring the Taliban into government, and it should resolve what to do with thousands of battle-hardened fighters and militants.

哈迪德：米歇尔，请允许我简单回顾一下，因为重要的是要说明为何和平协议除了听起来不错以外还很重要，因为和平。但这是阿富汗政府和塔利班达成的协议，实际上会是一份权力分享协议。该协议将允许塔利班成员在政府任职，同时解决如何处理数千名身经百战的士兵和武装分子的问题。

So a peace deal means the United States can leave with a structure in place that ostensibly keeps the country together. Any deal will probably be quite fragile because Afghanistan's been at war now for four decades. But it appears that's what the Biden administration is trying to do. It's pushing hard to see if it can get at least a tentative deal into place before they withdraw.

因此，和平协议意味着美国可以在阿富汗表面上拥有保持国家团结的体系后撤离。任何协议都可能相当脆弱，因为阿富汗战争已经持续了40年的时间。但这似乎正是拜登政府试图做到的事情。拜登政府正在努力运作，想看看在撤军之前能否达成至少一项初步协议。

MARTIN: How is the administration pushing? What are the efforts they're making?

马丁：政府是如何推动的？他们做了哪些努力？

HADID: It's been such a hefty diplomatic push in the past few weeks. Consider just the past few days and looking forward a bit into the future. On Thursday, Moscow held a daylong meeting on Afghan peace talks that was attended by a U.S. envoy and all the Afghan parties. Next week, the foreign ministers of NATO countries will get together. The secretary of state, Antony Blinken, is expected to be there and probably to try to build consensus on a way forward. There's another Afghan peace conference expected in Istanbul in early April. And the U.N.'s appointed an envoy for Afghan peace, and that's likely to help troubleshoot the process.

哈迪德：过去几周，庞大的外交推动一直在运作。回顾一下过去几天的情况，再展望一下未来。周四，莫斯科举行了为期一天的阿富汗和谈会议，美国特使和阿富汗各方出席了会议。下周，北约各国外长将举行会议。美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯将出席会议，并可能试图就未来的道路达成共识。预计4月初在伊斯坦布尔将举行另一场阿富汗和平会议。联合国还任命了一位阿富汗和平特使，这很可能有助于解决这个问题。

MARTIN: Has that push led to any tangible progress so far?

马丁：到目前为止，这一努力有没有带来任何切实的进展？

HADID: So far, it's actually hard to tell. I spoke to a senior Taliban official after the Moscow meeting, and he said, yeah, they were committed to speeding up negotiations. They wanted to discuss key issues like governance. On the government side, though, two negotiators we spoke to said there hadn't been any tangible progress. But one of them, Habiba Sarabi, said she was actually optimistic that all these efforts to speed up the talks would help both sides get to a peace agreement sooner rather than later.

哈迪德：到目前为止，其实很难说。莫斯科会议结束后，我采访了一名塔利班高级官员，他表示，没错，他们致力于加快谈判进程。他们想讨论治理等关键问题。不过，在阿富汗政府方面，接受我们采访的两名谈判代表表示，没有任何实质性进展。但其中一名代表哈比巴·萨拉比表示，她持乐观态度，相信所有这些加快谈判的努力都将有助于双方早日达成和平协议。

MARTIN: That was NPR's Diaa Hadid speaking to us from her base in Pakistan. Diaa Hadid, thank you so much for joining us.

马丁：以上是NPR新闻的迪亚·哈迪德从巴基斯坦带来的报道。迪亚·哈迪德，非常感谢你和我们连线。

HADID: Thank you, Michel.

哈迪德：谢谢你，米歇尔。