2023年经济学人 战争对欧洲经济的影响(1)

 

 

    Wartime Economics

    战时经济

    Europe dodges¹ recession, but the continent's new normal looks grim.

    欧洲躲过了经济衰退，但欧洲大陆的新常态前景暗淡。

    After three years of pandemic shutdowns, reopening booms, war, clogged² supply chains and nascent³ inflation, European policymakers thought that 2023 would be the year the old continent returned to a new normal of decent growth and sub-2% inflation.

    在经历了三年的大流行封控、放开后的繁荣、战争、供应链阻塞和新出现的通胀之后，欧洲政策制定者本以为，2023年会是欧洲大陆恢复新常态的一年，即体面的增长率和低于2%的通胀率。

    Europe’s economy is indeed settling down.

    欧洲经济确实正在稳定下来。

    Unfortunately, though, the new normal is considerably⁴ uglier than economists⁵ had expected.

    然而，不幸的是，新常态远不如经济学家所预期的那样美好。

    Start with the positives.

    先看积极的方面。

    The euro zone has proved remarkably⁶ resilient, considering the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis.

    考虑到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和能源危机的冲击之大，事实证明，欧元区的有很强的韧性。

    Gas is now cheaper than it was on the eve of the conflict, after prices spiked⁷ last summer.

    去年夏天天然气价格飙升后，现在的价格比战争前夕更低。

    Governments were not forced to ration⁸ energy as had been feared at first, in part thanks to unseasonably warm weather.

    政府没有像最初担心的那样被迫配给能源，这在一定程度上要归功于反常的温暖天气。

    Headline inflation, having reached a record 10.6% in October, is falling.

    总体通胀率在10月份达到了创纪录的10.6%，而现在正在下降。

    Nor, as doom-mongers predicted, has industry collapsed⁹ because of the cost of fuel.

    工业也不像末日论者预测的那样，因为燃料成本而崩溃。

    In Germany, energy-intensive factories have seen output drop by a fifth since the war started, as imports replaced domestic production.

    在德国，由于进口取代了国内生产，自战争开始以来，能源密集型工厂的产出下降了五分之一。

    But production overall had fallen just 3% by the end of the year, in line with the pre-pandemic trend.

    但到去年年底，总产量仅下降了3%，与大流行前的趋势一致。

    The latest IFO survey shows manufacturers as optimistic as they were before covid-19.

    IFO的最新调查显示，制造商和疫情前一样乐观。

    Although Germany’s economy shrank slightly in the fourth quarter of 2022, the euro zone defied expectations of recession.

    虽然德国经济在2022年第四季度略有收缩，但欧元区没有衰退的迹象。

    According to the European Commission’s latest forecast, the bloc¹⁰ will avoid a contraction¹¹ this quarter, too.

    根据欧盟委员会的最新预测，欧盟本季度也将避免经济收缩。

    Recent sentiment surveys support this projection¹².

    最近的情绪调查也支持这一预测。

    The widely watched purchasing-managers’ index (PMI) has risen in recent months, suggesting a rosier¹³ picture is emerging in manufacturing and, especially, services.

    近几个月来，备受关注的采购经理指数有所上升，这表明制造业，尤其是服务业正在出现更光明的前景。

    Economic stability keeps people in jobs.

    经济稳定让人们保住了工作。

    The number in work across the bloc rose again in the fourth quarter of 2022.

    2022年第四季度，整个欧盟的就业人数再次上升。

    The unemployment rate is at its lowest since the euro came into existence in 1999; in surveys, firms indicate appetite for new workers.

    失业率处于1999年欧元问世以来的最低水平，在调查中，企业表示有意愿招聘新员工。

    And jobs keep people spending.

    而工作让人们不断消费。

    Despite high energy prices, consumption contributed half a percentage point to quarterly growth in the second and third quarters of 2022.

    尽管能源价格居高不下，但消费对2022年第二和第三季度的季度增长贡献了0.5个百分点。

    In many countries, “the energy shock takes time to affect consumers because high prices are only passed on with a lag,” says Jens Eisenschmidt of Morgan Stanley, a bank.

    摩根士丹利银行的延斯·艾森施密特说，在许多国家，“能源冲击要过一段时间才会影响到消费者，因为高价格在传递影响时只会滞后”。

    “In the meantime, financial help from governments has helped households spend.”

    “与此同时，政府的财政援助帮助家庭继续消费。”

1 dodges   

n.闪躲( dodge的名词复数 )；躲避；伎俩；妙计v.闪躲( dodge的第三人称单数 )；回避

参考例句：

• He tried all sorts of dodges to avoid being called up. 他挖空心思，耍弄各种花招以逃避被征召入伍。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Those were the dodges he used to escape taxation. 那些是他用以逃税的诡计。 来自辞典例句

2 clogged   

（使）阻碍( clog的过去式和过去分词 )； 淤滞

参考例句：

• The narrow streets were clogged with traffic. 狭窄的街道上交通堵塞。
• The intake of gasoline was stopped by a clogged fuel line. 汽油的注入由于管道阻塞而停止了。

3 nascent   

adj.初生的，发生中的

参考例句：

• That slim book showed the Chinese intelligentsia and the nascent working class.那本小册子讲述了中国的知识界和新兴的工人阶级。
• Despite a nascent democracy movement,there's little traction for direct suffrage.尽管有过一次新生的民主运动，但几乎不会带来直接选举。

4 considerably   

adv.极大地；相当大地；在很大程度上

参考例句：

• The economic situation has changed considerably.经济形势已发生了相当大的变化。
• The gap has narrowed considerably.分歧大大缩小了。

5 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 remarkably   

ad.不同寻常地，相当地

参考例句：

• I thought she was remarkably restrained in the circumstances. 我认为她在那种情况下非常克制。
• He made a remarkably swift recovery. 他康复得相当快。

7 spiked   

adj.有穗的；成锥形的；有尖顶的

参考例句：

• The editor spiked the story. 编辑删去了这篇报道。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• They wondered whether their drinks had been spiked. 他们有些疑惑自己的饮料里是否被偷偷搀了烈性酒。 来自辞典例句

8 ration   

n.定量(pl.)给养，口粮；vt.定量供应

参考例句：

• The country cut the bread ration last year.那个国家去年削减面包配给量。
• We have to ration the water.我们必须限量用水。

9 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

10 bloc   

n.集团；联盟

参考例句：

• A solid bloc of union members support the decision.工会会员团结起来支持该决定。
• There have been growing tensions within the trading bloc.贸易同盟国的关系越来越紧张。

11 contraction   

n.缩略词，缩写式，害病

参考例句：

• The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
• The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。

12 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。

13 rosier   

Rosieresite

参考例句：

• Rosier for an instant forgot the delicacy of his position. 罗齐尔一时间忘记了他的微妙处境。
• A meeting had immediately taken place between the Countess and Mr. Rosier. 伯爵夫人和罗齐尔先生已经搭讪上了。