2023年经济学人 韩国楼市的前车之鉴(2)

 

 

    There are other sources of stress, too.

    还有其他的压力来源。

    Household debt reached 206% of disposable income in 2021, well above even the 148% in mortgage-loving Britain.

    2021年，家庭债务占可支配收入的比例达到206%，远高于喜欢抵押贷款的英国的148%。

    Some 60% of South Korean housing loans are floating-rate, in contrast with America, where most lending is on fixed¹ terms.

    韩国约60%的住房贷款是浮动利率，这与美国截然不同，在美国，大多数贷款是按固定条款发放的。

    As a result, household finances are squeezed more quickly when rates rise.

    因此，当利率上升时，家庭财务会更快地受到挤压。

    The danger is that buyers like Mr Kim turn into forced sellers—something he says he will try to avoid at all costs—meaning a slide in house prices becomes a collapse².

    危险在于，像金先生这样的买家会被迫成为卖家——他说他将不惜一切代价避免这种情况——这意味着房价下滑变成楼市崩盘。

    This risk is enhanced by the country’s bizarre rental³ system, known as jeonse.

    这种风险因该国奇怪的“全租房模式”（被称为jeonse）而加剧。

    Many tenants⁴ pay huge lump sums to landlords, often 60-80% of the value of a property, which are returned after two years.

    许多租户向房东一次性支付巨额款项，通常是房产价值的60%-80%，两年后全部退还。

    In the interim⁵ the landlord can invest the cash as they wish.

    在此期间，房东可以随心所欲地用这些资金进行投资。

    The system is a relic⁶ of South Korea’s rapid industrialisation, when mortgages were harder to attain⁷.

    这一体系是韩国快速工业化的遗留做法，当时抵押贷款更难获得。

    In a downturn, some landlords are forced to make firesales to reimburse⁸ departing tenants, having invested in risky⁹ assets, including more housing, and lost the money.

    在经济低迷时期，一些房东在投资了高风险资产（包括更多住房）并遭受亏损后，被迫进行低价抛售，以赔偿将要退租的租客的钱。

    Stories about sudden defaults and vanishing “villa kings”, owners of dozens of rental properties, proliferate¹⁰.

    突然的债务违约和消失的“别墅之王”的故事层出不穷，这些别墅之王拥有数十处用于出租的房产。

    South Korea also demonstrates how high household debt and asset prices can constrain¹¹ monetary¹² policy.

    韩国的情况还表明，家庭债务和资产价格过高会对货币政策产生多大制约。

    Opinion is split about whether housing-market frailty¹³, and the hit to household incomes, will stop the BOK raising rates further.

    房地产市场的脆弱性，以及对家庭收入的打击是否会阻止韩国央行进一步加息，对这个问题各方意见不一。

    Oxford¹⁴ Economics, a research firm, thinks the BOK will keep going.

    一家名为“牛津经济”的研究公司认为，韩国央行不会停手。

    Nomura, a bank, expects it to reverse course in May, and cut the benchmark rate to 2% by the end of the year.

    野村银行预计韩国央行将在5月份改弦易辙，并在年底前将基准利率降至2%。

    Most countries are not as exposed as South Korea.

    大多数国家不像韩国那样暴露在风险之下。

    But some, including Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, share the same mix of high household debt and frothy property prices.

    但包括澳大利亚、加拿大、荷兰、挪威和瑞典在内的一些国家，也面临着家庭债务居高不下，同时房地产价格存在泡沫的情况。

    All began raising rates after South Korea, and have further to go before the pressure feeds through.

    所有这些国家都是在韩国之后开始加息的，在压力被感受到之前还需要进一步加息。

    They are in for a rocky ride.

    他们将面临一段坎坷之旅。

1 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

2 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

3 rental   

n.租赁，出租，出租业

参考例句：

• The yearly rental of her house is 2400 yuan.她这房子年租金是2400元。
• We can organise car rental from Chicago O'Hare Airport.我们可以安排提供从芝加哥奥黑尔机场出发的租车服务。

4 tenants   

n.房客( tenant的名词复数 )；佃户；占用者；占有者

参考例句：

• A number of tenants have been evicted for not paying the rent. 许多房客因不付房租被赶了出来。
• Tenants are jointly and severally liable for payment of the rent. 租金由承租人共同且分别承担。

5 interim   

adj.暂时的，临时的；n.间歇，过渡期间

参考例句：

• The government is taking interim measures to help those in immediate need.政府正在采取临时措施帮助那些有立即需要的人。
• It may turn out to be an interim technology.这可能只是个过渡技术。

6 relic   

n.神圣的遗物，遗迹，纪念物

参考例句：

• This stone axe is a relic of ancient times.这石斧是古代的遗物。
• He found himself thinking of the man as a relic from the past.他把这个男人看成是过去时代的人物。

7 attain   

vt.达到，获得，完成

参考例句：

• I used the scientific method to attain this end. 我用科学的方法来达到这一目的。
• His painstaking to attain his goal in life is praiseworthy. 他为实现人生目标所下的苦功是值得称赞的。

8 reimburse   

v.补偿，付还

参考例句：

• We'll reimburse you for your travelling expenses.我们将付还你旅费。
• The funds are supposed to reimburse policyholders in the event of insurer failure.这项基金将在保险公司不能偿付的情况下对投保人进行赔付。

9 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

10 proliferate   

vi.激增，(迅速)繁殖，增生

参考例句：

• We must not proliferate nuclear arms.我们决不能扩散核武器。
• Rabbits proliferate when they have plenty of food.兔子有充足的食物就会繁衍得很快。

11 constrain   

vt.限制，约束；克制，抑制

参考例句：

• She tried to constrain herself from a cough in class.上课时她竭力忍住不咳嗽。
• The study will examine the factors which constrain local economic growth.这项研究将考查抑制当地经济发展的因素。

12 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

13 frailty   

n.脆弱；意志薄弱

参考例句：

• Despite increasing physical frailty,he continued to write stories.尽管身体越来越虛弱，他仍然继续写小说。
• He paused and suddenly all the frailty and fatigue showed.他顿住了，虚弱与疲惫一下子显露出来。

14 Oxford   

n.牛津（英国城市）

参考例句：

• At present he has become a Professor of Chemistry at Oxford.他现在已是牛津大学的化学教授了。
• This is where the road to Oxford joins the road to London.这是去牛津的路与去伦敦的路的汇合处。