2023年经济学人 世界经济的蒙娜丽莎效应(2)

 

 

    Yet there are also deeper changes at play.

    然而，也有更深层次的变化在起作用。

    The first relates to covid-19 disruptions.

    第一个变化与新冠肺炎带来的干扰有关。

    The world lurched from crashing to soaring growth as lockdowns came and went.

    随着封控的到来和结束，世界从崩溃忽然转向高速增长。

    This has played havoc¹ with the "seasonal² adjustments" common to most economic numbers.

    这对大多数经济数据中常见的"季节性调整"造成了严重破坏。

    In February the BLS changed the factors that it applies to inflation, which makes interpreting monthly rates much more difficult.

    今年2月，劳工统计局改变了适用于通胀的因素，使得解读月度通胀率变得更加困难。

    Annualised core inflation in the final quarter of 2022 "increased" from 3.1% to 4.3%.

    2022年最后一个季度的年化核心通胀率从3.1%升至4.3%。

    It is also harder than normal to understand euro-zone inflation.

    理解欧元区的通胀也变得比平时更难。

    Kamil Kovar of Moody's Analytics, a consultancy, notes that depending on how seasonal adjustment is done, core month-on-month inflation in March was as low as 0.2% or as high as 0.4%.

    咨询公司穆迪分析的卡米尔· 科瓦尔指出，根据季节性调整的不同方式，3月份核心环比通胀率最低为0.2%，最高为0.4%。

    The second change relates to sample sizes.

    第二个变化与样本大小有关。

    The pandemic accelerated a trend in which a growing share of people fail to respond to official surveys.

    疫情加速了一种趋势，即越来越多的人没有对官方调查做出回复。

    In America the response rate for the survey used to estimate vacancies³ has fallen from nearly 60% just before the pandemic to around 30%.

    在美国，用于估计职位空缺的调查回复率已从疫情前的近60%降至30%左右。

    When covid struck, the response rate to Britain's labour-force survey fell by roughly half.

    当疫情来袭时，对英国劳动力调查的回复率下降了大约一半。

    During lockdowns, some businesses closed.

    在封控期间，一些企业停业了。

    People fell out of the habit of filling in questionnaires.

    人们不再有填写调查问卷的习惯。

    Distrust in government may also have grown, leaving people disinclined to help statisticians.

    对政府的不信任也可能增加，导致人们不愿配合统计学家。

    Falling response rates probably increase data volatility⁴. They may also lead to bias⁵.

    回应率的下降可能会增加数据的波动性，还可能导致偏差。

    The people who stopped responding to surveys appear less prosperous than those who continue to do so, misleadingly inflating⁶ income.

    不再回复调查的人似乎不如继续回复调查的人富裕，从而误导性地夸大了收入。

    Jonathan Rothbaum of the Census⁷ Bureau suggests that real median household income growth in America from 2019 to 2020 was 4.1%, not 6.8% as originally reported, after proper corrections for non-response.

    人口普查局的乔纳森·罗斯鲍姆表示，在对没有回复的情况进行适当修正后，2019年至2020年美国家庭收入的实际中位数增长率为4.1%，而不是最初报告的6.8%。

    Since 2020 non-response has continued to push up income statistics by about 2%.

    自2020年以来，不回复的情况继续将收入统计数据推高了约2%。

    A report by Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights, a consultancy, suggests that correcting for "non-response bias" may also have contributed to recent big revisions to American earnings⁸ data.

    来自咨询公司通胀洞察的奥马尔·谢里夫在一份报告中指出，对"无回复偏差"的修正可能也是导致近期美国收入数据大幅修改的原因之一。

    The third reason for confusion stems from the disparity between "hard" and "soft" data--objective measures such as the level of unemployment, and subjective⁹ measures such as people's future expectations.

    导致困惑的第三个原因源于"硬"数据和"软"数据之间的差距。前者是客观指标，如失业率，后者是主观指标，如人们对未来的预期。

    Normally the two types move in sync.

    正常情况下，这两种类型的数据同步变化。

    Right now they are far apart.

    眼下，它们相差甚远。

    "Soft" measures look recessionary.

    "软"指标看起来经济在衰退。

    "Hard" measures point to a decent expansion.

    "硬"指标表明经济在良好地扩张。

    The divergence¹⁰ may reflect people's grumpiness with inflation.

    这种差异可能反映了人们对通胀的不满。

    Prices in the rich world are still rising by 9% year on year.

    富裕国家的物价仍在以同比9%的速度上涨。

    Investors¹¹ and statisticians will get better at understanding the world economy during periods of volatility and inflation.

    在动荡和通胀时期，投资者和统计学家将对世界经济有更好的理解。

    As the effects of the pandemic fade, so will distortions to seasonal adjustments.

    随着疫情影响的消退，季节性调整带来的失真也会消退。

    Economists¹² have already made progress in incorporating alternative data into forecasts, helping¹³ to overcome the problem of declining responses.

    经济学家在将替代数据纳入预测方面已经取得了进展，从而帮助克服了回复减少的问题。

    But this is scant¹⁴ comfort for governments and businesses that need to make decisions right now--or for people just trying to keep up with the news.

    但对于现在需要做出决策的政府和企业，或者只是试图跟上新闻报道的人来说，这带来的安慰寥寥无几。

    Do not be surprised if the global economy remains¹⁵ sfumata for a while yet.

    如果全球经济形势在一段时间内仍如晕涂而成的画一样模糊不清，请不要感到惊讶。

1 havoc   

n.大破坏，浩劫，大混乱，大杂乱

参考例句：

• The earthquake wreaked havoc on the city.地震对这个城市造成了大破坏。
• This concentration of airborne firepower wrought havoc with the enemy forces.这次机载火力的集中攻击给敌军造成很大破坏。

2 seasonal   

adj.季节的，季节性的

参考例句：

• The town relies on the seasonal tourist industry for jobs.这个城镇依靠季节性旅游业提供就业机会。
• The hors d'oeuvre is seasonal vegetables.餐前小吃是应时蔬菜。

3 vacancies   

n.空房间( vacancy的名词复数 )；空虚；空白；空缺

参考例句：

• job vacancies 职位空缺
• The sign outside the motel said \"No Vacancies\". 汽车旅馆外的招牌显示“客满”。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

5 bias   

n.偏见，偏心，偏袒；vt.使有偏见

参考例句：

• They are accusing the teacher of political bias in his marking.他们在指控那名教师打分数有政治偏见。
• He had a bias toward the plan.他对这项计划有偏见。

6 inflating   

v.使充气（于轮胎、气球等）( inflate的现在分词 )；（使）膨胀；（使）通货膨胀；物价上涨

参考例句：

• I felt myself inflating slowly with rage, like a tyre. 我感到自己体内的怒气正慢慢膨胀，像一只轮胎那样。 来自互联网
• Many are already overheating, with prices rising and asset bubbles inflating. 随着物价日益上涨、资产泡沫膨胀，很多新兴国家经济已经过热。 来自互联网

7 census   

n.(官方的)人口调查，人口普查

参考例句：

• A census of population is taken every ten years.人口普查每10年进行一次。
• The census is taken one time every four years in our country.我国每四年一次人口普查。

8 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

9 subjective   

a.主观(上)的，个人的

参考例句：

• The way they interpreted their past was highly subjective. 他们解释其过去的方式太主观。
• A literary critic should not be too subjective in his approach. 文学评论家的看法不应太主观。

10 divergence   

n.分歧，岔开

参考例句：

• There is no sure cure for this transatlantic divergence.没有什么灵丹妙药可以消除大西洋两岸的分歧。
• In short,it was an age full of conflicts and divergence of values.总之，这一时期是矛盾与价值观分歧的时期。

11 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

12 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

14 scant   

adj.不充分的，不足的；v.减缩，限制，忽略

参考例句：

• Don't scant the butter when you make a cake.做糕饼时不要吝惜奶油。
• Many mothers pay scant attention to their own needs when their children are small.孩子们小的时候，许多母亲都忽视自己的需求。

15 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。