2023年经济学人 经济学家和投资者应该少关注消费者的想法(1)

 

 

    Finance & economics

    财经版块

    Trolley¹ problems

    购物车问题

    Economists² and investors³ should pay less attention to what consumers think.

    经济学家和投资者应该少关注消费者的想法。

    It is an idea so seemingly obvious as to need little elaboration: people's feelings influence their behaviour.

    这是一个看起来如此显而易见的观点，几乎不需要详细说明：人们的情感会影响他们的行为。

    In the economic realm this truism helps explain why surveys of consumer sentiment garner⁴ attention.

    在经济领域，这一不言而喻的道理解释了为什么消费者情绪调查会受到关注。

    They are seen as predictive of spending trends and, by extension, the state of the economy.

    这些调查被视为可以对支出趋势进行预测，进而可以对经济状况进行预测。

    But pause for a moment to examine how exactly sentiment affects the economy, and the causal chain starts to look sketchier⁵.

    但请暂停片刻，看看情绪究竟是如何影响经济的，这时因果关系链就开始变得有些缺环少节了。

    At the current juncture⁶, when many think America is on the brink⁷ of recession, this oft-cited but fallible leading indicator⁸ merits closer inspection⁹.

    在当前的关键时刻，许多人认为美国正处于衰退的边缘，这个时候这一经常被引用，但又容易出错的主导性指标就值得被更仔细地审视一番了。

    Understanding consumer spending is a holy grail for forecasters, since it accounts for about two-thirds of American GDP.

    对于预测者来说，理解消费支出是他们的一大追求，因为消费支出在美国GDP中占比约为三分之二。

    Get it right, and the rest of the economy becomes much clearer.

    这方面预测对了，经济的其他方面就会变得清晰许多。

    But the past couple of years have not been kind to those who focus on sentiment as a guide to future spending.

    但对于那些认为情绪指引了未来支出的人来说，过去几年对他们并不友好。

    The most closely watched index of consumer sentiment, published monthly by the University of Michigan, plunged¹⁰ to its lowest reading in more than four decades in 2022, and yet consumer spending remained resilient, even after accounting¹¹ for inflation.

    最受关注的消费者情绪指数由密歇根大学每月发布，这一指数在2022年跌至40多年来的最低水平，但即使考虑到通胀因素，消费支出也仍然坚挺。

    This year, by contrast, the Michigan gauge¹² has gained ground, and yet other indicators¹³, including bond yields and lending flows, are flashing warning signs.

    与之形成对比，今年密歇根指数有所上升，但包括债券收益率和贷款流量在内的其他指标都亮起了警告红灯。

    The main explanation for why sentiment has been more of a misleading than a leading economic indicator is that inflation has outweighed¹⁴ much else in consumers' minds.

    消费者情绪之所以更像误导性而非主导性经济指标，主要是因为通胀在消费者心目中的重要性远远超过了其他因素。

    To generate their measures, interviewers ask people questions such as whether they think the economy is heading in a good direction and whether they are planning to make big purchases.

    为了衡量情绪，采访者会问人们一些问题，比如他们是否认为经济正朝着好的方向发展，他们是否计划进行大笔采购。

    Consumers tend to be gloomy when prices soar, as happened last year.

    当价格飙升时，消费者往往会感到悲观，就像去年那样。

    They give short shrift to slightly more complex factors, such as the big stash¹⁵ of savings¹⁶ many accumulated during the covid-19 pandemic.

    他们并不考虑稍微复杂一些的因素，比如许多人在新冠肺炎疫情期间积累了大笔存款。

    But the gap between subjective¹⁷ pessimism¹⁸ and objective reasons for greater optimism highlights a quandary¹⁹.

    但主观的悲观情绪和客观的乐观理由之间的差距，凸显出一个两难困境。

    The claim is that people's feelings, whether justified²⁰ or not, matter.

    有一种说法是，人们的感受无论是否合理，都很重要。

    When gloomy, they ought to spend less.

    当经济低迷时，他们应该减少支出。

    If they contradict their own feelings and keep spending, then what exactly is the value of sentiment data?

    但如果他们违背自己的感受而继续消费，那么情绪数据到底还有什么价值？

    It is a question that has bugged²¹ economists since consumer surveys got going after the second world war.

    自二战后开始进行消费者调查以来，这个问题一直困扰着经济学家。

    In 1955 the Federal Reserve examined re-interviews of respondents, conducted a year after initial surveys, to see whether expectations predicted subsequent expenditures²².

    1955年，美联储审查了在首次调查一年后，对受访者进行的又一次采访，以确定人们的预期是否预测了后来的支出。

    Officials concluded that they did not.

    官员们的结论是并没有。

    Rather than that being the final word, however, the sentiment industry only expanded over the years.

    然而，这个结论并没有一锤定音，反之，情绪调查行业多年来还在不断扩张。

    In 1967 the Conference Board introduced its own consumer survey.

    1967年，世界大型企业联合会推出了自己的消费者调查。

    In the 1980s ABC, a television network, started sponsoring a weekly version, which was later taken over by Bloomberg, a data and media firm.

    20世纪80年代，电视网美国广播公司开始赞助每周进行的消费者调查，后来由数据和媒体公司彭博社接手。

    Morning Consult, a pollster, launched a daily survey in 2018.

    民调机构晨间咨询在2018年推出了每日调查活动。

    Evidently, there is a big market appetite for sentiment indices, whatever their flaws.

    显然，无论情绪指数有什么缺陷，市场对它的胃口都很大。

1 trolley   

n.手推车，台车；无轨电车；有轨电车

参考例句：

• The waiter had brought the sweet trolley.侍者已经推来了甜食推车。
• In a library,books are moved on a trolley.在图书馆，书籍是放在台车上搬动的。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 garner   

v.收藏；取得

参考例句：

• He has garnered extensive support for his proposals.他的提议得到了广泛的支持。
• Squirrels garner nuts for the winter.松鼠为过冬储存松果。

5 sketchier   

adj.概要的，不完全的，粗略的( sketchy的比较级 )

参考例句：

6 juncture   

n.时刻，关键时刻，紧要关头

参考例句：

• The project is situated at the juncture of the new and old urban districts.该项目位于新老城区交界处。
• It is very difficult at this juncture to predict the company's future.此时很难预料公司的前景。

7 brink   

n.(悬崖、河流等的)边缘，边沿

参考例句：

• The tree grew on the brink of the cliff.那棵树生长在峭壁的边缘。
• The two countries were poised on the brink of war.这两个国家处于交战的边缘。

8 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

9 inspection   

n.检查，审查，检阅

参考例句：

• On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.经抽查，发现肉变质了。
• The soldiers lined up for their daily inspection by their officers.士兵们列队接受军官的日常检阅。

10 plunged   

v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• The train derailed and plunged into the river. 火车脱轨栽进了河里。
• She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death. 她没有站稳，从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。

11 accounting   

n.会计，会计学，借贷对照表

参考例句：

• A job fell vacant in the accounting department.财会部出现了一个空缺。
• There's an accounting error in this entry.这笔账目里有差错。

12 gauge   

v.精确计量；估计；n.标准度量；计量器

参考例句：

• Can you gauge what her reaction is likely to be?你能揣测她的反应可能是什么吗？
• It's difficult to gauge one's character.要判断一个人的品格是很困难的。

13 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

14 outweighed   

v.在重量上超过( outweigh的过去式和过去分词 )；在重要性或价值方面超过

参考例句：

• This boxer outweighed by his opponent 20 pounds. 这个拳击选手体重比他的对手重20磅。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She outweighed me by ten pounds, and sometimes she knocked me down. 她的体重超过我十磅，有时竟把我撞倒。 来自百科语句

15 stash   

v.藏或贮存于一秘密处所；n.隐藏处

参考例句：

• Stash away both what you lost and gained,for life continues on.将得失深藏心底吧，为了那未来的生活。
• That's supposed to be in our private stash.这是我的私人珍藏。

16 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

17 subjective   

a.主观(上)的，个人的

参考例句：

• The way they interpreted their past was highly subjective. 他们解释其过去的方式太主观。
• A literary critic should not be too subjective in his approach. 文学评论家的看法不应太主观。

18 pessimism   

n.悲观者，悲观主义者，厌世者

参考例句：

• He displayed his usual pessimism.他流露出惯有的悲观。
• There is the note of pessimism in his writings.他的著作带有悲观色彩。

19 quandary   

n.困惑，进迟两难之境

参考例句：

• I was in a quandary about whether to go.我当时正犹豫到底去不去。
• I was put in a great quandary.我陷于进退两难的窘境。

20 justified   

a.正当的，有理的

参考例句：

• She felt fully justified in asking for her money back. 她认为有充分的理由要求退款。
• The prisoner has certainly justified his claims by his actions. 那个囚犯确实已用自己的行动表明他的要求是正当的。

21 bugged   

vt.在…装窃听器（bug的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• The police have bugged his office. 警察在他的办公室装了窃听器。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He had bugged off before I had a chance to get a word in. 我还没来得及讲话，他已经走了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

22 expenditures   

n.花费( expenditure的名词复数 )；使用；（尤指金钱的）支出额；（精力、时间、材料等的）耗费

参考例句：

• We have overspent.We'll have to let up our expenditures next month. 我们已经超支了，下个月一定得节约开支。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The pension includes an allowance of fifty pounds for traffic expenditures. 年金中包括50镑交通费补贴。 来自《简明英汉词典》