2023年经济学人 美国债务问题: 痛苦的宿醉

 

美国债务问题: 痛苦的宿醉

    Finance & economics

    财经版块

    Nasty hangover

    痛苦的宿醉

    After debt-ceiling negotiations¹, America faces a debt deluge².

    债务上限谈判结束后，美国面临债务泛滥。

    Having flirted³ with madness, Congress decided⁴ to avert⁵ a sovereign default and allow the government to resume borrowing.

    在疯狂的边缘反复试探后，国会决定避免主权债务违约，并允许政府重新借款。

    But although the debt-ceiling negotiations are over, their aftershocks will ripple⁶ through financial markets for months to come.

    但是，尽管债务上限谈判已经结束，但这一事件的余震将在未来几个月波及整个金融市场。

    In order to stave off disaster, the Treasury⁷ spent much of the past six months running down its cash holdings, eventually reaching the point where it had almost nothing left.

    为了避免灾难，财政部在过去6个月的大部分时间里都在减少现金持有量，最终达到了现金几乎所剩无几的地步。

    Now it must scramble⁸ to replenish⁹ its cash, creating a potential hazard for the economy.

    现在，财政部必须抢着补充现金，这给经济带来了潜在的危险。

    The Treasury general account—the government’s main account at the Federal Reserve, used for official payments—fell to just $23bn at the start of June, far less than the amount of net spending on a typical day.

    6月初，美国财政部的一般账户--政府在美联储的主要账户，用于官方支付--余额降至仅230亿美元，远低于平常一天的净支出金额。

    Normally the Treasury tries to maintain a balance of at least $500bn, enough to cover about a week of cash outflows.

    正常情况下，财政部将余额保持在至少5000亿美元，足以覆盖大约一周的现金流出。

    Thus its task is to rebuild buffers¹⁰ by selling bills and bonds (it will mostly rely on bills, because it is easier to raise cash quickly via short-term debt sales).

    因此，财政部的任务是通过出售票据和债券来重建缓冲资金(财政部将主要依靠票据，因为通过短期债务出售更容易快速筹集现金)。

    At the same time, it will have to sell even more paper to finance the government’s deficit¹¹.

    与此同时，财政部将不得不出售更多的票据来弥补政府的赤字。

    The result will be a surge in issuance.

    其结果将是票据发行量激增。

    Mark Cabana of Bank of America forecasts that the Treasury will issue more than $1trn in bills over the next three months, roughly five times its total in an average summer.

    美国银行的马克·卡巴纳预测，未来三个月，财政部将发行逾1万亿美元的票据，大约是平常夏季发行总额的5倍。

    The concern is where the money will come from and, in particular, if debt sales will drain liquidity¹² from other asset markets.

    人们担心的是资金将从哪里来，尤其是出售债务是否会耗尽其他资产市场的流动性。

    There are two main possible sources of cash, and each poses risks.

    主要有两种可能的现金来源，每一种都会带来风险。

    The first is money-market funds, which are flush at the moment, with more than $5trn invested in them.

    第一种是货币市场基金，目前资金充裕，投资其中的金额超过5万亿美元。

    In principle, these funds could hoover up the bulk of the new bills by simply paring the cash they place at the Federal Reserve via its reverse-repurchase (repo) facility.

    原则上，这些基金只需通过逆回购机制削减存放在美联储的现金，就可以吸收掉大部分新发的票据。

    For that to happen, though, the Treasury may have to offer higher coupon¹³ rates than the 5.05% yield on reverse repos.

    不过，要做到这一点，财政部可能必须提供高于5.05%的逆回购票面利率。

    Higher yields, in turn, could translate into higher funding costs for already strained regional banks—an unattractive prospect¹⁴.

    更高的收益率继而可能为本已捉襟见肘的地区性银行带来更高的融资成本，这个前景并不理想。

    The second option is less attractive still.

    第二种选择还要更加不理想。

    Firms, pension funds and other investors¹⁵ may wind up being the biggest buyers of bills, which would mean moving money out of deposits into Treasuries¹⁶, reducing the level of bank reserves in the financial system.

    公司、养老基金和其他投资者最终可能成为票据的最大买家，这意味着将资金从储蓄账户转移到政府债券，从而会降低金融系统中银行准备金的水平。

    Banks are sitting on excess reserves of about $3trn; it would not take much for these to fall to $2.5trn, a level seen by many as indicating reserve scarcity¹⁷ (going by the rule of thumb that banks should maintain reserves at about 10% of GDP).

    银行目前坐拥约3万亿美元的超额准备金，用不了多久，这一数额就会降至2.5万亿美元，许多人认为达到这一水平意味着准备金稀缺(根据经验法则，银行应将准备金维持在GDP的10%左右)。

    Such a development would raise uncomfortable questions about banking¹⁸ stability and could force lenders to offer higher deposit rates to recover reserves.

    这样的事态发展将引发对银行业稳定性的令人不安的质疑，并可能迫使银行提供更高的存款利率来恢复准备金的水平。

    A brief encounter with reserve scarcity would not necessarily spell disaster.

    暂时的准备金稀缺不一定会带来灾难。

    The Fed could provide liquidity support if required.

    如果需要，美联储可以提供流动性支持。

    And to the extent that money-market funds buy up more bills, pressure on bank reserves would be reduced.

    而且货币市场基金购买更多的票据，银行准备金的压力就会减轻。

    Either way, however, the flood of Treasury issuance will almost certainly add to market anxiety and volatility¹⁹, increasing the risk that something, somewhere breaks.

    然而，无论是哪种情况，财政部大量发行票据都几乎肯定会加剧市场的焦虑和波动，从而增加某处的某事物崩溃的风险。

    It is one more thing to dislike about America’s perennial²⁰ debt-ceiling convulsions.

    对于反复出现的美国债务上限震荡，这让它招人讨厌的地方又多了一处。

1 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

2 deluge   

n./vt.洪水，暴雨，使泛滥

参考例句：

• This little stream can become a deluge when it rains heavily.雨大的时候，这条小溪能变作洪流。
• I got caught in the deluge on the way home.我在回家的路上遇到倾盆大雨。

3 flirted   

v.调情，打情骂俏( flirt的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• She flirted her fan. 她急速挥动着扇子。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• During his four months in Egypt he flirted with religious emotions. 在埃及逗留的这四个月期间，他又玩弄起宗教情绪来了。 来自辞典例句

4 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

5 avert   

v.防止，避免；转移(目光、注意力等)

参考例句：

• He managed to avert suspicion.他设法避嫌。
• I would do what I could to avert it.我会尽力去避免发生这种情况。

6 ripple   

n.涟波，涟漪，波纹，粗钢梳；vt.使...起涟漪，使起波纹； vi.呈波浪状，起伏前进

参考例句：

• The pebble made a ripple on the surface of the lake.石子在湖面上激起一个涟漪。
• The small ripple split upon the beach.小小的涟漪卷来，碎在沙滩上。

7 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

8 scramble   

v.爬行，攀爬，杂乱蔓延，碎片，片段，废料

参考例句：

• He broke his leg in his scramble down the wall.他爬墙摔断了腿。
• It was a long scramble to the top of the hill.到山顶须要爬登一段长路。

9 replenish   

vt.补充；(把…)装满；(再)填满

参考例句：

• I always replenish my food supply before it is depleted.我总是在我的食物吃完之前加以补充。
• We have to import an extra 4 million tons of wheat to replenish our reserves.我们不得不额外进口四百万吨小麦以补充我们的储备。

10 buffers   

起缓冲作用的人（或物）( buffer的名词复数 )； 缓冲器； 减震器； 愚蠢老头

参考例句：

• To allocate and schedule the use of buffers. 分配和计划缓冲器的使用。
• Number of times the stream has paused due to insufficient stream buffers. 由于流缓冲区不足导致流程暂停的次数。

11 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

12 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

13 coupon   

n.息票，配给票，附单

参考例句：

• The coupon can be used once only.此优惠券只限使用一次。
• I have a coupon for ten pence off a packet of soap.我有一张优惠券买一盒肥皂可以便宜十便士。

14 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

15 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

16 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

17 scarcity   

n.缺乏，不足，萧条

参考例句：

• The scarcity of skilled workers is worrying the government.熟练工人的缺乏困扰着政府。
• The scarcity of fruit was caused by the drought.水果供不应求是由于干旱造成的。

18 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

19 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

20 perennial   

adj.终年的；长久的

参考例句：

• I wonder at her perennial youthfulness.我对她青春常驻感到惊讶。
• There's a perennial shortage of teachers with science qualifications.有理科教学资格的老师一直都很短缺。