2023年经济学人 金融市场前景: 微笑袋鼠和警惕的豪猪

 

金融市场前景: 微笑袋鼠和警惕的豪猪

    Finance & economics

    财经版块

    Quokkas v porcupines¹

    微笑袋鼠vs警惕的豪猪

    Animal spirits in financial markets are hopelessly divided.

    不同金融市场的情绪大相径庭。

    The quokka, an Australian marsupial² about the size of a domestic cat, has full cheeks and a curved mouth that convey the impression—often to delighted tourists—that the critter is smiling.

    短尾矮袋鼠是一种澳大利亚有袋动物，大小和家猫差不多，有着胖胖的脸颊和弯弯的嘴巴，这给人们--通常是高兴的游客--留下了一种印象：它在微笑。

    It has been dubbed³ the happiest animal on Earth.

    它被称为地球上最快乐的动物。

    Yet these days it has competition from another species: the American stock investor⁴.

    然而，这些天来，它面临着来自另一个物种的竞争：美国股票投资者。

    The S&P 500 has already risen by 14% this year.

    标准普尔500指数今年已经上涨了14%。

    An increase of another 10% would take the index back to its all-time high, set in January last year.

    再上涨10%将使该指数回到去年1月创下的历史最高水平。

    Excitement about artificial intelligence has lit a fire under companies seen as potential beneficiaries.

    对人工智能的兴奋唤醒了那些被视为潜在受益者的公司。

    Although climbing stock prices represent an impressive turnaround, they are not the most astonishing market shift.

    尽管不断攀升的股价代表形势大大好转，但这还不是最令人惊讶的市场转变。

    That award goes to the collapse⁵ in volatility⁶.

    这一荣誉属于波动性的暴跌。

    In the past 12 months the VIX, an index that measures expected volatility in stock prices, using the cost of insuring against extreme moves, has declined by more than half, falling from around 30 to 13.

    在过去12个月里，波动率指数下跌了一半以上，从30左右降至13。波动率指数用对极端波动的保险成本来衡量股价的预期波动性。

    The last time it was so depressed⁷ was in early 2020, before the disruption of covid-19, when concerns about stagnation⁸ were more common than worries about inflation.

    波动率上一次如此低迷还是在疫情暴发前的2020年初，当时对经济停滞的担忧比对通胀的担忧更为普遍。

    Considering that the VIX is sometimes referred to as the “fear gauge”, its low level suggests a quokka-like placidity¹⁰ in the stockmarket.

    波动率指数有时被称为“恐惧衡量指标”，低水平的波动率表明股市出现了一种矮袋鼠式的平静。

    This outlook is all the more astonishing given the surfeit¹¹ of things about which an investor could worry.

    考虑到投资者有很多事情可以担心，这种前景就更加令人震惊。

    There is, for instance, considerable uncertainty¹² about the Federal Reserve’s next move, which would be a good reason for investors¹³ to want a little more protection.

    例如，美联储的下一步行动存在相当大的不确定性，这会让投资者有理由希望得到更多保护。

    When the S&P 500 touched an earlier peak in 2021—a period of higher volatility—the federal funds rate sat at zero (it is now 5%) and ten-year Treasury¹⁴ yields at 1.5% (now 3.7%).

    当标准普尔500指数在2021年（这一时期波动率更大）达到较早的一个峰值时，联邦基金利率为零(现在为5%)，10年期美国国债收益率为1.5%(现在为3.7%)。

    Moreover, high rates may prompt something else to break.

    此外，高利率可能会促使其他一些东西崩溃。

    Recent ructions in American banking¹⁵ were hardly on the radar-screens of investors until days before Silicon¹⁶ Valley Bank and Signature Bank went bust¹⁷.

    直到硅谷银行和签名银行倒闭的前几天，美国银行业最近的动荡才被投资者注意到。

    The failure of another lender, First Republic, came at the beginning of May.

    另一家银行第一共和银行在5月初倒闭。

    Today’s optimism makes it hard to remember that those troubles were so recent.

    今天的乐观情绪让人很难想起这些问题是最近才发生的。

    Yet there is another species that looks rather less placid⁹.

    然而，还有一种动物看起来不那么平静。

    If stock investors are the quokkas of the financial kingdom, bond investors are the porcupines: wary¹⁸ and naturally defensive¹⁹.

    如果说股票投资者是金融王国的矮袋鼠，那么债券投资者就是豪猪：警惕且天生具有防御性。

    The decline of the VIX stands in stark²⁰ contrast to its equivalent in the Treasury market.

    波动率指数的下跌与美国国债市场的波动率指数形成鲜明对比。

    Although the move index, which tracks the price of insuring against bond-market volatility, has declined from a 13-year high in March, it is still twice as high as it was pre-covid.

    尽管跟踪对债券市场波动的保险成本的指数从3月份的13年以来的高点回落，但仍是疫情前的两倍。

    Bond investors remain far from convinced that the good times have returned.

    债券投资者仍无法确信好日子已经回归。

    The divergence²¹ in sentiment between the quokkas and porcupines is very different from the early stages of the pandemic, when stocks were extremely volatile²² and government bonds far less so.

    矮袋鼠和豪猪之间的情绪差异与疫情暴发初期有很大不同，当时股市波动极大，政府债券的波动要小得多。

    Back then, investors were preoccupied²³ with covid’s economic fallout, the development and deployment²⁴ of vaccines²⁵, and the pace of economic reopening.

    当时，投资者一心关注新冠疫情的经济后果、疫苗的研发和部署以及经济重新开放的速度。

    Then inflation picked up and the Fed’s actions became the overwhelming focus.

    然后，通胀回升，美联储的行动成为压倒一切的焦点。

    It might be tempting²⁶ to observe the difference and judge that either the bond or stockmarket must be wrong.

    现在人们会忍不住观察股市和债券市场的不同之处，并判断债券和股市，其中一个肯定出错了。

    But that would not be quite right.

    但这个判断并不完全正确。

    If artificial intelligence emerges as a transformative force for the bottom line of major technology companies, but not for economy-wide growth, it would be a tremendous boon²⁷ for investors in shares and mean little for government bonds.

    如果人工智能成为大型科技公司利润的变革性力量，而不是对整个经济的增长进行变革，那么人工智能会让股票投资者极大地受益，对政府债券来说却意义不大。

    The problem is that such an outcome is far from assured—and investors are beginning to price stocks based on earnings²⁸ that are unlikely to materialise any time soon.

    问题是，这样的结果远非板上钉钉，而投资者已经开始根据短期内不太可能实现的盈利来为股票定价。

    The price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500, based on expected earnings over the next 12 months, has climbed from below 16 late last year to 19 now.

    基于未来12个月预期收益的标准普尔500指数的市盈率已从去年年底的不到16倍攀升至现在的19倍。

    This is still below the highs set during the pandemic, when earnings expectations were smothered²⁹ by lockdowns and restrictions³⁰, but is higher than at any other point in the past two decades.

    这仍低于疫情期间创下的高点，当时盈利预期受到封控和各种限制的压制，但高于过去20年的任何时候。

    What the divergence in animal spirits does say is that investors in the stockmarket—mistakenly or not—have left behind concerns that preoccupied them just a couple of months ago.

    两种动物情绪的差异确实表明，股市的投资者--无论是出于正确还是错误的判断--已经把仅仅几个月前还让他们忧心忡忡的问题抛在了脑后。

    They have traded their manifold worries for an optimistic narrative³¹ about artificial intelligence.

    他们已经放下了种种担忧，转而对人工智能持乐观态度。

    The rosy³² outlook suggested by the lack of volatility is ultimately a judgment³³ not just that the new technology will become a revolutionary moneymaker for America’s listed companies, but that the Fed’s decisions will not shake the financial system again and that the economy will withstand the impact of interest-rate rises.

    波动性较小表明了一种乐观前景，这归根结底是一种判断，即人工智能将成为美国上市公司革命性的摇钱树，而且美联储的决定将不会再次对金融体系产生震动，经济将经受住加息的影响。

    As things stand, it looks like a bold bet.

    就目前情况来看，这种判断似乎是一次大胆的赌注。

1 porcupines   

n.豪猪，箭猪( porcupine的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Porcupines use their spines to protect themselves. 豪猪用身上的刺毛来自卫。
• The59 victims so far include an elephant, dromedaries, monkeys and porcupines. 目前为止，死亡的动物包括大象、峰骆驼、子以及豪猪。 来自互联网

2 marsupial   

adj.有袋的，袋状的

参考例句：

• Koala is an arboreal Australian marsupial.考拉是一种澳大利亚树栖有袋动物。
• The marsupial has been in decline for decades due to urban sprawl from car accidentsdog attacks.这种有袋动物其数量在过去几十年间逐渐减少,主要原因是城市的扩张、车祸和狗的袭击。

3 dubbed   

v.给…起绰号( dub的过去式和过去分词 )；把…称为；配音；复制

参考例句：

• Mathematics was once dubbed the handmaiden of the sciences. 数学曾一度被视为各门科学的基础。
• Is the movie dubbed or does it have subtitles? 这部电影是配音的还是打字幕的？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

5 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

6 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

7 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

8 stagnation   

n. 停滞

参考例句：

• Poor economic policies led to a long period of stagnation and decline. 糟糕的经济政策道致了长时间的经济萧条和下滑。
• Motion is absolute while stagnation is relative. 运动是绝对的，而静止是相对的。

9 placid   

adj.安静的，平和的

参考例句：

• He had been leading a placid life for the past eight years.八年来他一直过着平静的生活。
• You should be in a placid mood and have a heart-to- heart talk with her.你应该心平气和的好好和她谈谈心。

10 placidity   

n.平静，安静，温和

参考例句：

• Miss Pross inquired,with placidity.普洛丝小姐不动声色地问。
• The swift and indifferent placidity of that look troubled me.那一扫而过的冷漠沉静的目光使我深感不安。

11 surfeit   

v.使饮食过度；n.(食物)过量，过度

参考例句：

• The voters are pretty sick of such a surfeit of primary sloganeering.选民们对于初选时没完没了地空喊口号的现象感到发腻了。
• A surfeit of food makes one sick.饮食过量使人生病。

12 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

13 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

14 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

15 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

16 silicon   

n.硅(旧名矽)

参考例句：

• This company pioneered the use of silicon chip.这家公司开创了使用硅片的方法。
• A chip is a piece of silicon about the size of a postage stamp.芯片就是一枚邮票大小的硅片。

17 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

18 wary   

adj.谨慎的，机警的，小心的

参考例句：

• He is wary of telling secrets to others.他谨防向他人泄露秘密。
• Paula frowned,suddenly wary.宝拉皱了皱眉头，突然警惕起来。

19 defensive   

adj.防御的；防卫的；防守的

参考例句：

• Their questions about the money put her on the defensive.他们问到钱的问题，使她警觉起来。
• The Government hastily organized defensive measures against the raids.政府急忙布置了防卫措施抵御空袭。

20 stark   

adj.荒凉的；严酷的；完全的；adv.完全地

参考例句：

• The young man is faced with a stark choice.这位年轻人面临严峻的抉择。
• He gave a stark denial to the rumor.他对谣言加以完全的否认。

21 divergence   

n.分歧，岔开

参考例句：

• There is no sure cure for this transatlantic divergence.没有什么灵丹妙药可以消除大西洋两岸的分歧。
• In short,it was an age full of conflicts and divergence of values.总之，这一时期是矛盾与价值观分歧的时期。

22 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

23 preoccupied   

adj.全神贯注的，入神的；被抢先占有的；心事重重的v.占据（某人）思想，使对…全神贯注，使专心于( preoccupy的过去式)

参考例句：

• He was too preoccupied with his own thoughts to notice anything wrong. 他只顾想着心事，没注意到有什么不对。
• The question of going to the Mount Tai preoccupied his mind. 去游泰山的问题盘踞在他心头。 来自《简明英汉词典》

24 deployment   

n. 部署,展开

参考例句：

• He has inquired out the deployment of the enemy troops. 他已查出敌军的兵力部署情况。
• Quality function deployment (QFD) is a widely used customer-driven quality, design and manufacturing management tool. 质量功能展开(quality function deployment,QFD)是一个广泛应用的顾客需求驱动的设计、制造和质量管理工具。

25 vaccines   

疫苗，痘苗( vaccine的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His team are at the forefront of scientific research into vaccines. 他的小组处于疫苗科研的最前沿。
• The vaccines were kept cool in refrigerators. 疫苗放在冰箱中冷藏。

26 tempting   

a.诱人的, 吸引人的

参考例句：

• It is tempting to idealize the past. 人都爱把过去的日子说得那么美好。
• It was a tempting offer. 这是个诱人的提议。

27 boon   

n.恩赐，恩物，恩惠

参考例句：

• A car is a real boon when you live in the country.在郊外居住，有辆汽车确实极为方便。
• These machines have proved a real boon to disabled people.事实证明这些机器让残疾人受益匪浅。

28 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

29 smothered   

（使）窒息， （使）透不过气( smother的过去式和过去分词 )； 覆盖； 忍住； 抑制

参考例句：

• He smothered the baby with a pillow. 他用枕头把婴儿闷死了。
• The fire is smothered by ashes. 火被灰闷熄了。

30 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

31 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

32 rosy   

adj.美好的，乐观的，玫瑰色的

参考例句：

• She got a new job and her life looks rosy.她找到一份新工作，生活看上去很美好。
• She always takes a rosy view of life.她总是对生活持乐观态度。

33 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。