2023年经济学人 为什么人们难以理解气候风险(1)

 

 

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Unknown unknowns

    不为人知的未知事件

    Why people struggle to understand climate risk为什么人们难以理解气候风险

    Placed before you are two urns².

    你面前放着两个缸。

    Each contains 100 balls.

    每个缸里有100个球。

    You are given a clear description of the first urn¹’s contents, in which there are 50 red balls and 50 black balls.

    有人清楚地告诉你第一个缸里有什么，里面有50个红球和50个黑球。

    The economist³ running the experiment is tight-lipped about the second, saying only that there are 100 balls divided between red and black in some ratio.

    进行这项实验的经济学家对第二个缸里有什么却守口如瓶，只说里面有100个球，红球和黑球各占某一比例。

    Then you are offered a choice.

    然后你可以进行选择。

    Pick a red ball from an urn and you will get a million dollars. Which urn would you like to pull from?

    从缸中拿出一个红球，你就会得到一百万美元。你想从哪个缸里拿球？

    Now try again, but select a black ball. Which urn this time?

    现在再试一次，但要拿出一个黑球。这次你选哪个缸？

    Most people plump for the first urn both times, despite such a choice implying that there are both more and fewer red balls than in the second urn.

    大多数人两次都会选择第一个缸，尽管这样的选择意味着第二个缸里的红球更多，同时也更少。

    This fact is known as the Ellsberg paradox⁴ after Daniel Ellsberg, a researcher at the RAND corporation, a think-tank, better known for leaking documents detailing America’s involvement in the Vietnam war.

    这一事实被称为埃尔斯伯格悖论，名称源于智囊团兰德公司的研究员丹尼尔·埃尔斯伯格，他更为人所知的事迹是泄露美国关于越南战争的详细文件。

    Ellsberg, who died on June 16th, called the behaviour ambiguity⁵ aversion.

    埃尔斯伯格于6月16日去世，他称这种行为是对模糊性的厌恶。

    It was a deviation⁶ from the model of rational choice developed by John von Neumann, a mathematician⁷, and a demonstration⁸ that knowing the likelihood of something can alter decision-making.

    这并不符合数学家约翰·冯·诺伊曼建立的理性选择模型，也证明了解某事的可能性可以改变决策行为。

    The experiment may seem like just another of the cutesy puzzles beloved by economists⁹.

    这个实验貌似只是深受经济学家喜爱的又一个有趣谜题。

    In fact, it reveals a deeper problem facing the world as it struggles with climate change.

    但事实上，它揭示了世界在努力应对气候变化时面临的一个更深层次的问题。

    Not only are the probabilities of outcomes not known—the likelihood, say, of hurricanes in the Caribbean ten years from now—nor is the damage they might do.

    不仅结果的可能性是未知的--比如，十年后加勒比海地区发生飓风的可能性--结果可能造成的损害也是未知的。

    Ignorance of the future carries a cost today: ambiguity makes risks uninsurable, or at the very least prohibitively expensive.

    对未来的无知在今天带来了代价：模糊性使风险无法投保，或者至少保险的价格高得令人望而却步。

    The less insurers know about risks, the more capital they need to protect their balance-sheets against possible losses.

    保险公司对风险的了解越少，他们就越需要更多的资本来保护自己的资产负债表，以防可能的损失。

    In May State Farm, California’s largest home-insurance provider, retreated from the market altogether, citing the cost of “rapidly growing catastrophe¹⁰ exposure”.

    今年5月，加州最大的家庭保险公司State Farm彻底退出了市场，理由是“迅速增长的巨灾风险”带来巨大成本。

    Gallagher Re, a broker¹¹, estimates that the price of reinsurance in America has increased 50% this year after disasters in California and Florida.

    保险经纪公司Gallagher Re估计，在加州和佛罗里达州发生气候灾难后，美国再保险的价格今年上涨了50%。

    Few firms mention climate change specifically—perhaps a legacy¹² of Republican attacks on “woke capitalism”—but it lurks¹³ behind the rising cost of insuring homeowners against fires, floods and hurricanes.

    很少有公司明确提到气候变化--这可能是共和党人攻击“觉醒资本主义”的遗留后果--但房主对火灾、洪水和飓风的保险成本不断上升，这一事实背后就潜伏着气候变化问题。

    Insurance is a tool of climate adaptation.

    保险是适应气候变化的工具。

    Indeed, actuaries have as big a role to play as activists¹⁴ in the fight against climate change.

    事实上，在应对气候变化的斗争中，保险精算师有着和气候活动家一样的重要作用。

    Without insurance, those whose homes burn in a wildfire or are destroyed by a flood will lose everything.

    如果没有保险，那些房屋被野火烧毁或被洪水摧毁的人将倾家荡产。

    The destitute¹⁵ may become refugees.

    灾民们可能会成为难民。

    Insurance can also be a spur for corrective action.

    保险也可以成为纠正措施的动力。

    Higher premiums¹⁶, which accurately¹⁷ reflect risk, provide an incentive¹⁸ to adapt sooner, whether by discouraging building in risky¹⁹ areas or encouraging people to move away from fire-prone land.

    更高的保险费准确地反映了风险，会激励人们更快地适应新环境，包括阻止在高风险地区建造建筑，以及鼓励人们离开火灾多发的地区。

    If prices are wrong, society will be more hurt by a hotter world than otherwise would be the case.

    如果保险价格不对，全球变热对社会的伤害会更大。

    Politicians considering subsidies²⁰ for home insurance on flood plains ought to take note.

    考虑为河漫滩的家庭提供保险补贴的政客们应该注意这一点。

1 urn   

n.（有座脚的）瓮；坟墓；骨灰瓮

参考例句：

• The urn was unearthed entire.这只瓮出土完整无缺。
• She put the big hot coffee urn on the table and plugged it in.她将大咖啡壶放在桌子上,接上电源。

2 urns   

n.壶( urn的名词复数 )；瓮；缸；骨灰瓮

参考例句：

• Wine utensils unearthed include jars, urns, pots, bowls and cups. 发掘出的酒器皿有瓶、瓮、罐、壶、碗和杯子。 来自互联网
• Ernie yearned to learn to turn urns. 呕尼渴望学会转咖啡壶。 来自互联网

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 paradox   

n.似乎矛盾却正确的说法；自相矛盾的人(物)

参考例句：

• The story contains many levels of paradox.这个故事存在多重悖论。
• The paradox is that Japan does need serious education reform.矛盾的地方是日本确实需要教育改革。

5 ambiguity   

n.模棱两可；意义不明确

参考例句：

• The telegram was misunderstood because of its ambiguity.由于电文意义不明确而造成了误解。
• Her answer was above all ambiguity.她的回答毫不含糊。

6 deviation   

n.背离，偏离；偏差，偏向；离题

参考例句：

• Deviation from this rule are very rare.很少有违反这条规则的。
• Any deviation from the party's faith is seen as betrayal.任何对党的信仰的偏离被视作背叛。

7 mathematician   

n.数学家

参考例句：

• The man with his back to the camera is a mathematician.背对着照相机的人是位数学家。
• The mathematician analyzed his figures again.这位数学家再次分析研究了他的这些数字。

8 demonstration   

n.表明，示范，论证，示威

参考例句：

• His new book is a demonstration of his patriotism.他写的新书是他的爱国精神的证明。
• He gave a demonstration of the new technique then and there.他当场表演了这种新的操作方法。

9 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 catastrophe   

n.大灾难，大祸

参考例句：

• I owe it to you that I survived the catastrophe.亏得你我才大难不死。
• This is a catastrophe beyond human control.这是一场人类无法控制的灾难。

11 broker   

n.中间人，经纪人；v.作为中间人来安排

参考例句：

• He baited the broker by promises of higher commissions.他答应给更高的佣金来引诱那位经纪人。
• I'm a real estate broker.我是不动产经纪人。

12 legacy   

n.遗产，遗赠；先人(或过去)留下的东西

参考例句：

• They are the most precious cultural legacy our forefathers left.它们是我们祖先留下来的最宝贵的文化遗产。
• He thinks the legacy is a gift from the Gods.他认为这笔遗产是天赐之物。

13 lurks   

n.潜在，潜伏；（lurk的复数形式）vi.潜伏，埋伏（lurk的第三人称单数形式）

参考例句：

• Behind his cool exterior lurks a reckless and frustrated person. 在冷酷的外表背后，他是一个鲁莽又不得志的人。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Good fortune lies within Bad, Bad fortune lurks within good. 福兮祸所倚，祸兮福所伏。 来自互联网

14 activists   

n.（政治活动的）积极分子，活动家( activist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His research work was attacked by animal rights activists . 他的研究受到了动物权益维护者的抨击。
• Party activists with lower middle class pedigrees are numerous. 党的激进分子中有很多出身于中产阶级下层。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 destitute   

adj.缺乏的；穷困的

参考例句：

• They were destitute of necessaries of life.他们缺少生活必需品。
• They are destitute of common sense.他们缺乏常识。

16 premiums   

n.费用( premium的名词复数 )；保险费；额外费用；（商品定价、贷款利息等以外的）加价

参考例句：

• He paid premiums on his life insurance last year. 他去年付了人寿保险费。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• Moves are afoot to increase car insurance premiums. 现正在酝酿提高汽车的保险费。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 accurately   

adv.准确地，精确地

参考例句：

• It is hard to hit the ball accurately.准确地击中球很难。
• Now scientists can forecast the weather accurately.现在科学家们能准确地预报天气。

18 incentive   

n.刺激；动力；鼓励；诱因；动机

参考例句：

• Money is still a major incentive in most occupations.在许多职业中，钱仍是主要的鼓励因素。
• He hasn't much incentive to work hard.他没有努力工作的动机。

19 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

20 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》