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美阿商讨未来驻阿美军人数

The number of U.S. troops who remain in Afghanistan after the withdrawal¹ of NATO forces in 2014 depends largely on what the Loya Jirga, or gathering² of tribal³ elders, decides in the coming days when it reviews a draft security agreement between the Afghan and U.S. governments. An Afghan government spokesman said the two sides have agreed to allow home raids by U.S. troops if President Barack Obama acknowledges mistakes by the U.S. military in Afghanistan. The U.S. says it has not agreed to this, and that Washington has its own conditions.

北约2014年从阿富汗撤军之后，美国将在阿富汗留下多少军队？这在很大程度上取决于阿富汗部落长老们。他们最近几天审议阿富汗和美国政府达成的一个安全协议草案时将作出决定。阿富汗政府发言人说，双方同意，如果奥巴马总统承认美国军队在阿富汗所犯的错误，就允许驻阿美军搜查阿富汗人的房屋。但美国表示没有接受这一点，华盛顿有自己的条件。

A key U.S. condition for leaving any troops in Afghanistan is that no American soldier can be tried under Afghan law if he or she is charged with a crime while deployed⁴.

美国在阿富汗留驻任何部队的一个重要条件就是，不得根据阿富汗法律审判在驻防阿富汗期间被控犯罪的任何美国军人。

Defense⁵ Secretary Chuck Hagel, speaking at a gathering of NATO ministers in October, indicated that point remains⁶ non-negotiable.

美国国防部长哈格尔10月在一次北约防长会议上表示，这一点没有谈判余地。

"Our position has been very clear on this, especially on jurisdiction," he said.

“我们在这个问题、特别是管辖权问题上的立场非常明确。”

The memory of crimes committed by U.S. Army Staff Sergeant⁷ Robert Bales, now serving a life sentence for massacring 17 villagers, is perhaps the most poignant⁸. The dead, in Kandahar province last year, included several children.

美国陆军上士贝尔斯因去年杀害坎大哈省包括几个孩子在内的17名村民而被判终身监禁。贝尔斯罪行给人们留下的记忆可能是最刻骨铭心的。

Enforcing U.S. law

Michael O'Hanlon, at the Brookings Institution, said the U.S. has a longstanding policy of not allowing its soldiers to be tried under foreign laws.

布鲁金斯研究所的奥汉隆说，不允许本国军人根据外国法律受审，这是美国长期坚持的一个政策。

“We recognize that our troops sometimes do criminal acts. And sometimes heinous⁹ acts, but we will hold them accountable," he said. "We will never give them a pass, but we will be the ones who are in charge because there are just too many countries around the world with too many different legal systems to allow our troops to be caught up in things that could be politicized, and that could often involve legal systems that are not as well developed and penal¹⁰ systems that are not as well developed."

“我们知道我们的军人有时会犯罪，甚至做下令人发指的事情。我们会追究他们的责任，绝不会放过他们。但必须由我们来做这件事，因为世界有太多的国家，有太多不同的法律制度，可能会把美国军人犯事政治化，而且经常他们犯事的那些国家的法律制度不那么完善，惩罚制度不那么完善。”

Whether U.S. forces would be allowed to enter Afghan homes while pursuing militants¹¹ is another sensitive issue.

美国军队追剿武装分子时是否能进入阿富汗人家中搜查，这是另一个敏感问题。

U.S. officials have expressed confidence that Afghans will accept a bilateral¹² security agreement, in part because many believe that peace beyond 2014 depends on the presence of U.S. troops.

美国官员相信，阿富汗人将会接受一个双边安全协议，部分原因在于，很多人认为2014年之后阿富汗的和平取决于美国的军事存在。

Continuing presence

Afghan security forces are developing, but still have a long way to go before they can stand up on their own against insurgents¹³. U.S. officials are talking about leaving a force of as many as 12,000 troops to train, advise and assist the Afghans. The number depends on how stable Afghanistan remains, how far reconciliation¹⁴ efforts go, the strength of Taliban insurgents, the presence of al-Qaida militants, and the level of cooperation from neighboring Pakistan.

阿富汗安全部队不断成长，但在能够独立打击反叛武装之前，还有很长的路要走。美国在阿富汗留驻多少军队，这取决于阿富汗局势的稳定程度，和解努力的进展，塔利班反叛武装的力量，基地组织武装分子的活动，以及邻国巴基斯坦的合作情况。

Hagel said any decision to stay will have to be at the invitation of the Afghans, and that should come soon.

哈格尔部长说，美军必须是应阿富汗人的要求留驻，阿方应当很快就会提出邀请。

"Obviously the sooner the better," he said. "We all need time to plan, to prepare."

“当然越快越好。我们都需要时间计划和准备。”

For the U.S., the growing violence in Iraq is a reminder¹⁵ of a mistake Washington does not want to repeat. A failure to reach a security agreement there led to a complete pullout of U.S. forces.

当年美国没有与伊拉克达成一个安全协议就撤出了全部军队，结果伊拉克暴力事件频发，这时刻提醒华盛顿，不要重复过去的错误。

The U.S. effort to stabilize¹⁶ Afghanistan has been going on for 12 years, the longest war in American history. Its outcome depends on decisions reached in the next few days.

美国稳定阿富汗的努力已经持续了12年，这是美国历史上最长的战争。而这场战争的结果将取决于今后几天作出的决定。