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伊朗核协议让投资人对市场感到乐观

Oil prices fell following the breakthrough accord in Geneva that limits or freezes parts of Iran's nuclear activities. In exchange for curbing¹ Iran’s nuclear program, the deal will ease some of the crippling economic sanctions that have caused massive inflation in Iran and weakened its currency. Although the deal is preliminary, analysts³ believe investors⁴ are optimistic it could eventually lead to an increase in the world’s oil supply.

在一个限制或冻结部分伊朗核活动的突破性协议在日内瓦达成后，国际油价随之下跌。为换取对伊朗核项目的限制，这个协议将缓解一些严重性的经济制裁，这些制裁造成伊朗大量通货膨胀并使它的货币贬值。尽管这只是一个初步协议，分析人士说，投资人还是对它最终可能使世界石油供应增加感到乐观。

Oil futures⁵ dropped, the dollar traded higher and European airline stocks soared as the agreement between Iran and six world powers raised expectations for a thaw⁶ in tensions between Iran and the West.

油价在期货市场的价格下跌，美元的交易价格上涨，欧洲航空公司的股价也飙涨。在伊朗与6个世界强国达成协议后，人们对伊朗与西方国家的紧张解冻的期望也随之提高。

Although Iran’s output of crude oil is not expected to change soon, energy analyst² Miswin Mahesh thinks the interim⁷ deal has eased global fears about the slowdown in oil production.

尽管人们不认为伊朗原油产量短期内将有所改变，巴克莱银行BARCLAYS能源分析师米斯文?马赫什说，这个初步协议缓解了对石油产量减缓的全球性担忧。

“It does help the oil market because otherwise, going into next year, we still have massive outages, Libya is off the market by 1.4 million barrels per day, Iraq is off the market by 300,000 barrels per day and on top of that, Iran is also reducing,” said Mahesh.

马赫说： “它的确对原油市场有所帮助，否则在接下来的一年，我们还是有大量的短缺，利比亚每天减少供应市场140万桶，伊拉克每天减少30万桶，除此之外，伊朗也在减产。”

As it stands, the agreement limits Iran’s oil exports to one million barrels per day, but market analyst Mike Ingram said that the hope is that the easing of sanctions will eventually make it easier for Iran to sell its oil on world markets.

目前的情况是，这个协议限制伊朗每日石油输出量为1百万桶。不过市场分析人士麦克·英格兰姆说，人们希望放松制裁最终能让伊朗更容易在世界市场上出售它的石油。

“Lower oil prices are good for global equity⁸ and at the economic level they are good for every single country outside of the Middle East and Nigeria,” said Ingram.

BGC合伙人公司的英格兰姆说：“低油价对全球资本市场都是好事，在经济的层面上它对中东和尼日利亚以外的每一个国家都是好事。”

Key stock indexes in the U.S. and Europe advanced on the news, while markets in Asia were mostly higher. While many industries would benefit from lower fuel prices, Nick Lewis at London Capital Group notes that other winners will include companies that stayed behind in Iran, even after economic sanctions were put in place, such as French carmakers.

美国和欧洲的主要股价指数都上涨，亚洲市场在协议的消息传出后大多数也上涨。不过伦敦资本集团的尼克·路易斯说，其他赢家还包括经济制裁实行后，仍然留在伊朗未撤出的法国汽车制造商。

“Renault and Peugeot, Peugeot in particular, who had a presence in Iran prior to the restrictions⁹ that were put on in 2011, [will benefit],” said Lewis.

路易斯说：“雷诺和标致汽车，尤其是标致公司，它在2011年对伊朗的限制开始施行前就在那里驻点了。”

Analysts say the easing of sanctions could help restart Iran’s automotive sector¹⁰, allow petrochemical exports to expand and renew the country’s access to billions of dollars in trade.

分析人士说，放松制裁有助于伊朗汽车工业重新启动，石化产品的输出增加，并让伊朗重新获得数十亿美元的贸易收入。