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伊朗核协议将带来新关切

International officials involved in negotiating the preliminary agreement with Iran on its nuclear program say it is the first step toward guaranteeing that Iran is nuclear weapons-free thus making the world a safer place.

参加伊朗核问题初步协议谈判的国际官员说，这是确保伊朗成为无核国家、世界更加安全的第一步。

But that would also potentially create a sanctions-free Iranian economy potentially enabling Iran to use other elements of its power more extensively.

但是，这样一来，伊朗经济也有可能不再受到制裁，而经济强劲的伊朗可能在区域问题上发挥更多的干预作用，令西方国家产生新的担忧。

Feeling the burden

Before the sanctions, Iran's economy was growing at about six percent a year. Now it is shrinking, as the sanctions cost it five billion dollars a month.

在国际制裁之前，伊朗经济每年以6%的速度增长。但是，现在的伊朗经济在萎缩，因为制裁导致伊朗每个月损失50亿美元。

Feeling the burden of these measures, Iran's people elected the relatively¹ moderate candidate, Hassan Rouhani, as president, with a mandate² to end the sanctions. And his foreign minister was greeted as a hero when he returned from the talks.

伊朗人感受到了制裁措施带来的负担，他们选出了相对温和的鲁哈尼出任总统， 并授权他结束制裁。

"The greatest benefit will be peace, the message of peace," said one Iranian woman. " And the economy is also important. We will see progress in every field.

伊朗妇女莫斯说：“最大的获益将是和平，和平的信息。 经济也非常重要，我们将看到每一个领域的进步。”

Point of pride

But that means giving up much of the nuclear program, a huge point of pride for many Iranians.

但是，这意味着伊朗将放弃大部分的核项目，而这对很多伊朗人来说，是他们巨大的自豪之源。

In the end, Iran's leaders may have decided³ to trade away the potential to build a weapon that made them international pariahs⁴ and whose highly destructive force and global revulsion would have made difficult to use.

伊朗领导人最终可能会放弃制造让他们成为全球公敌的核武器。核武器由于其巨大的杀伤力以及全球对其的厌恶，使其无法轻易地使用。

In return, they could get a weapon they can use - a stronger economy and more resources to funnel⁵ to their allies, including the Iraqi government, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

相反，他们可以获得另外一种武器。那就是一个更加强劲的经济，和更多的资源来帮助他们的盟友，包括伊拉克政府、黎巴嫩的真主党以及叙利亚总统阿萨德。

“The main priority will be to ensure that the economic issue doesn't become a risk in terms of stability," said Iran analyst⁶ Torbjorn Soltvedt of the Maplecroft risk assessment⁷ firm. "But obviously an economically stronger Iran, you could see it play a more active regional role.”

伊朗分析人士、英国风险评估公司梅普尔克罗夫特公司的伊朗分析师 托尔比约恩·邵尔特威特说：“最亟待解决的问题是，确保经济问题不会对稳定构成风险。但是，很明显一个经济更加强劲的伊朗，将会在区域问题上扮演更活跃的一个角色。”

Although not as dangerous as a nuclear weapon, a more active intervention⁸ policy would still cause concern for Iran's adversaries⁹ in the region and in the West.

虽然不会像拥有核武器那么危险，但是，伊朗如果采取更加活跃的干预政策，这会让伊朗在区域以及西方的敌手感到担忧。

Threat perception

But a final nuclear accord, due in six months, could improve Iran's international relations and make what Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group calls its “forward defense¹⁰ policy” less important.

但是，六个月之后，最终核协议的签署将会改善伊朗的国际关系。国际危机组织的阿里·瓦埃兹说，这样，伊朗所谓的“提前防御政策”就变得不那么重要了。

“A nuclear agreement can reduce Iran's threat perception," Vaez said. "It will have less motivation to support groups in the region that could basically serve as a way of extending conflict away from its borders.”

瓦埃兹说：“核协议将降低国际对伊朗威胁的看法。这样伊朗支持区域组织的动机就会减少，这些组织基本上的作用是将冲突转移到远离伊朗国界之外的地区。”

That is an optimistic scenario¹¹, and it suggests what former British ambassador to Iran, Richard Dalton, thinks is a broad strategic decision by Iran's leaders.

这是一个乐观的估计。 前英国驻伊朗大使理查德·多尔顿说，这是伊朗领导人的一个更广泛的战略决定。

“I believe that this Iranian leadership, including the Supreme¹² Leader, has realized that the Iranian state, and the Iranian people, cannot prosper¹³, and the future of the Islamic Republic cannot be secure, if there is no accommodation with the West on the nuclear program,” Dalton said.

多尔顿说：“我相信，现在的伊朗领导层，包括最高精神领袖，都意识到，如果在核项目问题上不与西方作出调整，伊朗作为一个国家以及伊朗人民，无法繁荣，这个伊斯兰共和国不能得到安全。”

Iran has worked hard over many years and at great expense to build its nuclear program. Iranian leaders say the program is for peaceful purposes, like energy and research. Now, if they prove it to the international community, they could get their economy back, opening the opportunity for better, or worse, international relations.

多年来，伊朗一直非常努力，并且也付出了相当的代价来发展核项目。伊朗领导人说，他们的核项目是为了发展能源和进行研究等和平用途。现在，如果他们向国际社会证明，他们可以让经济重回轨道。他们因此打开新的局面，改善国际关系或者使其更加恶化。