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分析：伊朗核协议下阶段谈判倍加艰巨

With the first stage agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program finally achieved after a decade of dispute, diplomats¹ will have little time to rest. They are on a six-month clock to reach a comprehensive agreement, a task they acknowledge will likely be even more difficult than reaching the interim² accord.

限制伊朗核计划的第一阶段协议历经十年争执之后终于达成，但外交官们几乎没有时间停歇。他们只有六个月时间来达成一项全面协议，他们承认这个任务可能会比达成一项临时协议更加困难。

It was a triumphant³ moment for the foreign ministers of Iran and the six-nation U.N. contact group, well after three in the morning on Sunday. But their hard-won moment of satisfaction won't last long. Even more difficult issues lie ahead, including permanent, verifiable limits on Iran's nuclear program and the potential lifting of all nuclear-related sanctions.

对于伊朗与联合国六国联络小组国家的外长们来说，这是一个胜利的时刻，此时早已过了星期日凌晨三点。不过，他们这来之不易的满意时刻不会持续很久。更棘手的问题摆在前面，其中包括对伊朗核计划永久、可验证的限制以及与核有关的所有制裁的可能解除。

In spite of the show of camaraderie⁴, there is still a serious shortage of trust, and skeptics in the West, the Gulf⁵, Israel and elsewhere worry that with some relief from the sanctions in hand, Iran won't go any further.

尽管这种友好气氛显示出来，而在西方仍然有严重的信任不足，波斯湾、以色列和其他地方的怀疑论者担心，那些制裁一旦缓解，伊朗就会丝毫不肯再往前走。

From the Maplecroft risk assessment⁶ firm in Britain, Torbjorn Soltvedt told VOA that with sanctions being slightly eased, some countries could try to get around what's left.

英国梅普尔克罗夫特风险评估公司的索尔特维特（Torbjorn Soltvedt）通过Skype告诉美国之音，随着制裁稍稍放缓，一些国家可能会试图绕过余下的制裁。

“It is then clearly quite possible that the sanctions regime will erode⁷ and that Iran will play a long game and essentially⁸ advance the nuclear program so as to close the gap between a latent capability⁹ and a full blown nuclear breakout,” said Soltvedt.

他说：“那么，显然很可能的是制裁制度将会削弱，伊朗将玩一个持久的游戏，实质上推进核计划，以便拉近潜在能力和完全成熟的核突破之间的差距。

But U.S. officials say that won't be so easy, with strong enforcement still in place, along with the most damaging of the sanctions.

不过，美国官员说，那不会这样容易，由于仍然存在强大的执行力，以及最具破坏性的制裁。

Iran analyst¹⁰ Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group agrees.

国际危机研究组织的伊朗事务分析员阿里.瓦埃兹表示同意。

“The most important part of the sanctions regime, the crown jewels, which are the oil and financial sanctions, will remain in place. And therefore Iran will have the motivation to come back and negotiate the comprehensive agreement, which is much more difficult to negotiate and would require much more painful concessions,” said Vaez.

他说：“制裁制度的最重要部分，王牌制裁手段，也就是石油和金融制裁仍会照旧存在。因此，伊朗将会有回来洽谈全面合作协议的动机，那是更为困难的谈判，并需要更痛苦的让步。

Indeed, the impact of the sanctions on ordinary Iranians is believed to be what propelled the relatively¹¹ moderate candidate, Hassan Rouhani, to the presidency¹² in last May's election, making this accord possible.

事实上，制裁对普通伊朗人的影响被认为在今年5月大选中促使相对温和的候选人哈桑.鲁哈尼当选总统，从而使这个协议成为可能。

The former British ambassador to Iran, Richard Dalton, believes Iranian officials, including Supreme¹³ Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini, have made a strategic decision to do what is necessary to put the nuclear dispute, and the economic sanctions, behind them.

前英国驻伊朗大使理查德.道尔顿认为伊朗官员，其中包括最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里· 哈梅内伊，已经作出战略决策，采取必要行动摆脱核争端和经济制裁。

“They will not be saying to themselves, 'We just have to sit this one out and we will emerge with an economy that can trade with the rest of the world freely.' I believe they will go all out in this six-month period to achieve a comprehensive agreement,” said Dalton.

道尔顿通过Skype说：“他们不会对自己说，‘我们只需要坐下来完成这一轮谈判，我们就有了可以跟世界其他地区自由贸易的经济了。’ 我相信他们会在这六个月期间全力以赴达成一项全面协议。“

But that doesn't mean it will be easy. Iran will be asked to give up much of the nuclear fuel enrichment program it has built over many years at great expense, and to allow intrusive¹⁴ inspections¹⁵ to prove it is not secretly trying to build a nuclear bomb.

但是，这并不意味着事情会很容易。伊朗将被要求放弃很大一部分核燃料浓缩项目，这些项目已经兴建多年，代价巨大，并且要允许不宣而至的随时检查，以证明它没有试图秘密制造核弹。

There will likely be many more long days and nights of negotiations¹⁶ as the six-month deadline approaches.

在六个月期限临近的时候，很可能会有更多夜以继日的谈判。