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美联储主席:对经济复苏乐观但风险仍存

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen was mostly upbeat on the U.S. economy in remarks before Congress Wednesday.  Despite a harsh winter that slowed economic growth in the first quarter, Yellen says the world’s largest economy is on track for solid growth this year.  But given continuing weakness in the labor¹ market and geopolitical tensions abroad, Yellen says the recovery is far from certain.

美联储主席耶伦星期三在美国国会作证时对美国经济总体表示乐观。耶伦说，尽管严冬导致今年第一季度经济放缓，世界最大经济体美国今年的经济正在稳定增长。但是耶伦表示，鉴于就业市场继续疲软以及国外地缘政治出现紧张局势，经济复苏尚不确定。

The U.S. economy added nearly 300,000 jobs last month - the biggest gain in more than two years.  But the pickup² came after a disappointing start - with the U.S. economy barely growing between January and March.

美国经济上个月新增了将近30万份工作，这是近两年来最大的增长。但是今年第一季度的情况令人失望，1至3月份美国经济几乎没有任何增长。

In testimony³ before the Joint⁴ Economic Committee, Janet Yellen predicted a strong pickup for the rest of the year.

美联储主席耶伦在国会两院联合经济委员会作证时预测，今年剩余时间里，经济将出现强劲复苏。

“Looking ahead, I expect that economic activity will expand at a somewhat faster pace this year than it did last year, that the unemployment rate will continue to decline gradually, and that inflation will begin to move up toward two percent," said Yellen.

她说：“展望未来，我预计今年的经济活动和去年相比将出现更快的扩张，失业率将继续逐步下降，通货膨胀将开始上行达到2%。”

But she said that does not mean the job is done for the U.S. central bank.

但是耶伦说，这并不意味着美国中央银行完成了它的工作。

“Currently one prominent risk is that adverse⁵ developments abroad, such as heightened geopolitical tensions or an intensification⁶ of financial stresses in emerging market economies could undermine confidence in the global economic recovery," she said.

“当前一个突出风险是国外因素的不利发展有可能破坏全球经济复苏的信心，例如地缘政治紧张局势升级，以及新兴经济体金融压力加剧。”

The Fed has been reducing or “tapering⁷” its monthly bond purchases that have kept interest rates at historic lows - from $85 billion five months ago to the current $45 billion per month.

美联储已经减少或放缓了保持历史低水平利率的月度债券购买，由5个月前的每月850亿美元降到目前的450亿美元。

Small business advocate John Arensmeyer says the pace is just about right for small businesses that still need low-interest capital to expand.

小企业权益倡导者阿伦斯迈耶说，美联储的举动有利于小企业，它们仍需要低利率资金来扩张生意。

“There needs to be a long-term tapering at some point, but I think they’re moving slowly enough that they’re not doing damage to the recovery that we’ve seen over the last couple of years," said Yellen.

她说：“在某个时刻需要长期减缓购买债券，但我认为，这个过程应该缓慢启动，以确保不对我们过去两年看到的经济复苏造成损害。”

Quantitative⁸ easing - as it’s called - is on track to end by the fourth quarter of this year.  But Yellen says borrowing rates will remain low for a “considerable time” - not just to fuel consumer spending and business expansion - but to bolster⁹ the recovery in the housing market which has faltered¹⁰ in recent months.

量化宽松政策预计在今年第四季度结束。但是耶伦表示，借贷利率将在“相当长的时期”保持低水平，其目的不仅要刺激消费者消费和企业扩张，而且也要促进最近几个月处于停滞状态的房地产市场复苏。