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专家对制裁俄罗斯的效果意见不一

Western nations are warning Russia that they will toughen economic sanctions if Moscow interferes¹ in Ukraine's election on May 25th.  Economic analysts² are divided on what impact sanctions have had so far on Russia's economy and the actions of its leaders.  Some say sanctions frighten off investors³ and hurt the economy.  Others say those sanctions have already kept Moscow from pushing harder into Ukraine.  And still others are skeptical⁴ that sanctions will have much impact.

西方国家警告俄罗斯，如果莫斯科干涉5月25日的乌克兰选举，将对俄进行更严厉的制裁。制裁迄今为止对俄罗斯经济及其领导人的行为产生了什么效果，经济分析人士对此意见不一。

Pro-Russian activists⁵ have been working to take over parts of eastern Ukraine, using tactics similar to those that helped Moscow annex⁶ Crimea.Western nations are already using sanctions to punish Russia for seizing Crimea and to discourage any possible Russian invasion of other parts of Ukraine.

亲俄活动人士使用类似帮助莫斯科并吞克里米亚的策略，一直在设法控制乌克兰东部部分地区。西方国家针对俄罗斯并吞克里米亚而采取了制裁措施，阻止俄罗斯可能入侵乌克兰其他地区。

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says economic sanctions could get much tougher.

美国国务卿克里说，经济制裁会变得更加严厉。

"If Russia or its proxies⁷ disrupt the election, the United States and those countries represented here today in the European Union will impose sectoral⁸ economic sanctions," said Kerry.

他说：“如果俄罗斯或其代理人干扰选举，美国和欧盟国家将针对俄罗斯的一些经济部门实施制裁。”

Russia's vital oil and natural gas industry could be one target of stronger sanctions.  That would be a big change from sanctions that have so far been aimed just at people in Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle.

俄罗斯重要的石油和天然气工业可能成为更严厉制裁的目标。目前的制裁只是针对俄罗斯总统普京核心圈子内的个别人。

John Chambers⁹, of the Standard and Poor's financial services company, says sanctions worry investors because they increase uncertainty¹⁰.

标准普尔公司的约翰.钱伯斯说，制裁会增加不确定性，令投资者担忧。

"There's already been an impact on the Russian economy.  You see that in the financial markets. You see that in the outward portfolio¹¹ flows," said Chambers.

他说：“制裁已经对俄罗斯经济造成影响。这已经反映在金融市场上。资金外流就是例证。”

Uncertainty makes it hard for investors to assess risk, prompting them to take money out of the country.  Without capital to buy and build things, the economy can stall or even shrink.

不确定性让投资者很难评估风险，导致他们拿钱走人。没有资本去购买和建筑，经济会停滞甚至会收缩。

Russia’s economy already had problems, making it hard to judge the impact of sanctions, according to Columbia University Professor Tim Frye, who spoke¹² via Skype.

哥伦比亚大学教授蒂姆.弗莱通过SKYPE说，俄罗斯的经济已经出现问题，因此很难对制裁的影响作出判断。

“There are lots of underlying¹³ negative trends in the Russian economy that have dramatically slowed growth in the last couple of years.  At the margins¹⁴, sanctions may be increasing some economic uncertainty, but they are not having a broad economic impact yet," said Frye.

他说：“俄罗斯经济的基本面存在负面趋势，经济增长过去几年大幅度放慢。制裁充其量可能会增加一些经济的不确定性，但尚未产生广泛的经济影响。”

An economist¹⁵ who once advised the Russian and Ukrainian governments says sanctions could get “a lot tougher.”

一位曾经给俄罗斯和乌克兰政府担任过顾问的经济学家说，制裁可能会变得“严厉很多”。

Anders Aslund, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says that sanctions may have kept Moscow from taking stronger military action against Ukraine.

彼得森国际经济研究所研究员安德斯.阿斯伦德说，制裁可能阻止莫斯科对乌克兰采取更强硬的军事行动。

"It is not obvious, but I think they [the sanctions] have worked.  What we have seen is that the Russian action in eastern Ukraine looks as if it is faltering¹⁶, and one of the factors behind it is sanctions," said Aslund.

他说：“尽管还不明显，但我认为制裁已经生效。我们看到的是，俄罗斯在乌克兰东部的行动似乎有点犹豫不决，这背后的原因之一就是制裁。”

Aslund says Russia’s economy will shrink rather than grow this year, at least, in part, due to sanctions.

阿斯伦德说，俄罗斯经济今年不增长反而会收缩，这至少部分是由于制裁。