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报告预测中国温室效应气体排放下降

China’s greenhouse gas emissions¹ likely will decline faster than previously² thought, according to a new report. The authors say that means the world could prevent global warming exceeding U.N. targets. It follows optimism at the recent G7 summit that a comprehensive global climate change agreement could be signed this year.

一项新的研究报告预测说，中国的温室效应气体排放下降速度可能比预测的要快。报告作者表示，这意味着全世界在阻止全球气候变暖方面能够超出联合国的目标。此外，从刚刚结束的七国集团峰会传来令人乐观的消息说，一项有关全球气候变化的全面协议今年可能签署。

The images of workers and schoolchildren wearing face masks, struggling through the smog that regularly chokes China’s cities have become a familiar sight. Things are slowly changing, however, according to the report.

The country’s greenhouse gas emissions probably will peak in 2025 – five years earlier than President Xi Jinping’s stated target of 2030.

全世界最大的污染排放国中国的温室效应气体排放可能在2025年到达顶峰，比中国国家主席习近平提出的2030年的目标提前5年。

Falling coal use

It’s partly down to changes in the way China is fueling its economic growth, said Fergus Green, co-author of the report from the London School of Economics.

伦敦经济学院报告的共同作者格林说，出现这种局面的部分原因是中国推动经济增长的方式发生了变化。

“What we’ve seen in the last year or so is that China’s coal use has started to fall," said Green. "We think that over the next five years we’ll probably see coal use plateau. It could keep declining, but it will probably plateau. And then in the first half of the 2020s, it will start to decline more strongly.”

他说：“我们去年看到的情况是，中国的煤炭用量开始下跌。我们认为在今后五年里，我们大概会看到煤炭用量达到高峰水平。煤炭用量会持续下跌，但可能会保持在高峰水平。然后，在2020年代头5年，煤炭用量会开始更大幅地下跌。”

That decline is being driven by slow changes to China’s $17.6 trillion economy.

导致这种下跌的原因是中国17.6万亿美元的经济正在发生缓慢的变化。

“Growth is slowing from dizzying heights of double-digit figures for many, many years. And the composition of that growth is changing away from heavy industry type investment towards investment in services and more innovative³ high-tech⁴ manufacturing," said Green. "A very important one is change in China’s energy supply, away from coal toward non-coal sources like renewable energy, and also gas and nuclear.”

格林说：“经济增长正在放缓，已经不再是双位数增长了。经济增长的构成也不再是重工业投资，而是服务业和更为创新型的高技术制造业的投资了。一个非常重要的变化是中国的能源供应逐渐脱离煤炭，转向非煤炭的能源，如可再生能源，天然气以及核能。”

Green said the changes in China mean it is increasingly likely the world will avoid global warming of more than 2 degrees Celsius⁵ above pre-industrial levels – the upper limit targeted by the United Nations.

Nearing agreement

格林说，中国发生的这些变化意味着全世界有可能避免全球气温比前工业化时代上升超过2摄氏度。这是联合国锁定目标的上限。

The U.N. hopes to enshrine that benchmark in a new global climate change deal to be hammered out in Paris in December. Speaking after the G-7 meeting Monday in Elmau, Germany, President Barack Obama said progress had been made toward a strong climate agreement.

联合国希望今年12月在巴黎能够达成一项新的全球气候变化协议，从而确立这个目标。奥巴马总统星期一在德国埃尔茂宫七国峰会结束后说，在达成一个强有力的气候协议方面已经取得进展。

“All the G-7 countries have now put forward our post 2020 targets for reducing carbon emissions and will continue to urge other significant emitters to do so, as well," he said. "We'll continue to meet our climate finance commitments to help developing countries to transition to low-carbon growth.”

他说：“七国集团各国都已经提出减少碳排放的2020年后的目标，并将继续敦促其他碳排放大国也这么做。我们将继续履行有关气候变化的融资承诺，协助发展中国家向低碳发展过渡。”

The G-7 leaders agreed the world should phase out the use of fossil fuels by the end of this century.

七国集团领导人一致认为，世界各国应当在本世纪结束时逐步停止使用化石燃料。

Martin Kaiser, head of international climate politics at Greenpeace, welcomed the tone at the G-7.

环保组织对这一承诺表示欢迎。

“Elmau has delivered. With the decisions on climate change, the vision of a 100 percent renewable energy supply has got contour," he said. "Elmau has also given a clear signal that by the mid-century you have to phase out coal and oil, out of the energy system.”

绿色和平组织的凯泽说：“埃尔茂已经提出了承诺。有关气候变化的决定已经作出，能源供应百分之百来自可再生能源的前景已经有了轮廓。埃尔茂也发出了一个清晰的信号，这就是在本世纪中间的时候，必须逐步将煤炭和石油排除到能源供应体系之外。”

Six months ahead of the Paris meeting there is optimism over the level of agreement. Environmentalists say the leaders of the world’s industrialized countries, though, must match their positive commitments with action to tackle emissions and help to pay for a de-carbonized global economy.

还有6个月就要召开气候变化巴黎会议。目前人们对有关协议的力度比较乐观。但环保人士表示，世界工业发达国家领导人必须用实际行动履行他们做出的承诺，应对碳排放问题，拿出资金来协助没有碳排放的全球经济发展。