英国卫报:一万亿美元能治愈所有疾病吗?(4)

The team hammers out four key messages. First, the economic argument that is most likely to be repeated in the corridors of power: the returns from investment in healthcare are big.

该团队敲定了四条关键信息。首先，最有可能在权力走廊里重复的经济论点是：医疗投资的回报很高。

By avoiding long periods of poor health, we increase the value of additional life years (VALYs, in healthcare acronym¹ jargon),

通过避免长期不佳的健康状况，我们增加了额外寿命年的价值(医疗保健术语缩写为VALYs)，

which generates an economic return that outweighs² the healthcare investment we've put in by a factor of between nine and 20.

从而产生的经济回报比我们投入的医疗保健投资多出9到20倍。

It's striking that spending what seems like a huge sum of money will often deliver big economic returns.

花一大笔钱通常会带来巨大的经济回报，这一点令人吃惊。

The second point is that the convergence is achievable in less than a generation.

第二点是，这种趋同在不到一代人的时间内就可以实现。

Presumably this means that investors³ can look to make money relatively⁴ quickly, too.

这大概意味着投资者也可以相对快速地赚钱。

Governments can be confident of balancing their books fairly soon after a large initial outlay⁵.

政府有信心在一大笔初始支出之后很快就能平衡收支。

To be able to see an effect in a matter of years helps turn the convergence from a vision document to actionable policy.

能够在几年时间内看到效果有助于将这种趋同从一纸愿景文件转变为可行动的政策。

The third point is that governments are underusing fiscal⁶ policies in healthcare.

第三点是，政府在医疗保健方面没有充分利用财政政策。

In other words, by increasing the tax on tobacco and alcohol, deaths from noncommunicable diseases and from injuries can be sharply reduced in low- and middle-income countries.

换句话说，通过提高对烟草和酒精的征税，中低收入国家可大幅减少非传染性疾病和伤害造成的死亡。

For example, a 50% price increase in cigarettes in China would prevent 20 million deaths and produce tax revenue of $20bn annually⁷ in the next 50 years.

例如，中国香烟价格上涨50%，将在未来50年防止2000万人死亡，并每年产生200亿美元的税收。

The same price increase over the same time period in India would save 4 million lives and bring in an extra $2bn a year in tax.

在同一时期内，印度同样的价格上涨将挽救400万人的生命，并带来每年20亿美元的额外税收。

Reducing the subsidies⁸ paid to fossil fuel companies also has the effect of improving general health, mostly through the reduction in respiratory diseases.

减少对化石燃料公司的补贴也有改善总体健康的效果，主要是通过减少呼吸道疾病。

But it's the fourth point that is most important for us: that universal healthcare is the most efficient way to achieve a convergence in global health.

但第四点对我们来说是最重要的：全民医疗是实现全球卫生一体化最有效的方式。

The Lancet's framework was written before Covid-19, but the response of various countries to the crisis shows that universal healthcare is a good protector for pandemics, too.

《柳叶刀》的框架是在新冠爆发之前编写的，但各国对危机的反应表明全民医疗也是预防大流行的良好屏障。

Jeremy Farrar is director of the Wellcome Trust, one of the world's largest medical research charities, with an endowment of about ￡30bn.

维康信托基金会世界上最大的医学研究慈善机构之一，捐款达300亿英镑，杰里米·法勒是维康信托基金会的负责人。

As someone with experience of problem-solving in global health, he is well placed to advise us on how to spend the trillion dollars.

作为一个在解决全球卫生问题方面经验丰富的人，他完全有资格就如何花费这万亿美元提出建议。

"The bedrock of your spending must be on universal healthcare," he told me.

“你的支出必须以全民医保为基础，”他告诉我。

An equitable⁹ system of healthcare is necessary to improve maternal¹⁰ health, child health, to improve end of life care and to fight epidemics¹¹.

一个公平的医疗保健系统对于改善孕产妇健康、儿童健康、改善临终护理和抗击流行病是必要的。

"Almost anything else is not equitable, not efficient and will not deliver what you need sustainably."

“其他几乎所有东西都是不公平的、低效的，也无法提供你可持续需要的东西。”

1 acronym   

n.首字母简略词，简称

参考例句：

• That's a mouthful of an acronym for a very simple technology.对于一项非常简单的技术来说，这是一个很绕口的缩写词。
• TSDF is an acronym for Treatment, Storage and Disposal Facilities.TSDF是处理，储存和处置设施的一个缩写。

2 outweighs   

v.在重量上超过( outweigh的第三人称单数 )；在重要性或价值方面超过

参考例句：

• Her need to save money outweighs her desire to spend it on fun. 她省钱的需要比她花钱娱乐的愿望更重要。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Its clarity in algebraic and analytical operations far outweighs any drawbacks. 文化代数和解析运算中的清晰性远远胜过任何缺点。 来自辞典例句

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

5 outlay   

n.费用，经费，支出；v.花费

参考例句：

• There was very little outlay on new machinery.添置新机器的开支微乎其微。
• The outlay seems to bear no relation to the object aimed at.这费用似乎和预期目的完全不相称。

6 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

7 annually   

adv.一年一次，每年

参考例句：

• Many migratory birds visit this lake annually.许多候鸟每年到这个湖上作短期逗留。
• They celebrate their wedding anniversary annually.他们每年庆祝一番结婚纪念日。

8 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 equitable   

adj.公平的；公正的

参考例句：

• This is an equitable solution to the dispute. 这是对该项争议的公正解决。
• Paying a person what he has earned is equitable. 酬其应得,乃公平之事。

10 maternal   

adj.母亲的，母亲般的，母系的，母方的

参考例句：

• He is my maternal uncle.他是我舅舅。
• The sight of the hopeless little boy aroused her maternal instincts.那个绝望的小男孩的模样唤起了她的母性。

11 epidemics   

n．流行病

参考例句：

• Reliance upon natural epidemics may be both time-consuming and misleading. 依靠天然的流行既浪费时间，又会引入歧途。
• The antibiotic epidemics usually start stop when the summer rainy season begins. 传染病通常会在夏天的雨季停止传播。