TED演讲:如何赋予AI力量而不是被它压倒(4)

Alright, reality check: Are we going to get AGI any time soon?

好了，回归现实：我们很快就会有AGI吗？

Some famous AI researchers, like Rodney Brooks¹, think it won't happen for hundreds of years.

一些著名的AI研究者，如罗德尼·布鲁克斯，认为一百年内是没有可能的。

But others, like Google DeepMind founder² Demis Hassabis, are more optimistic and are working to try to make it happen much sooner.

但是其他人，如谷歌DeepMind公司的创始人德米斯·哈萨比斯，就比较乐观，且努力想要它尽早实现。

And recent surveys have shown that most AI researchers actually share Demis's optimism,

近期的调查显示，大部分的人工智能研究者其实都和德米斯一样持乐观态度，

expecting that we will get AGI within decades, so within the lifetime of many of us, which begs the question -- and then what?

预期我们十年内就会有AGI，所以我们中许多人在有生之年就能看到，这就让人不禁想问，那么接下来呢？

What do we want the role of humans to be if machines can do everything better and cheaper than us?

如果什么事情机器都能做得比人好，成本也更低，那么人类又该扮演怎样的角色？

The way I see it, we face a choice. One option is to be complacent³.

依我所见，我们面临一个选择。选择之一是要自我满足。

We can say, "Oh, let's just build machines that can do everything we can do and not worry about the consequences.

我们可以说，“我们来建造机器，让它来帮助我们做一切事情，不要担心后果。

Come on, if we build technology that makes all humans obsolete⁴, what could possibly go wrong?"

拜托，如果我们能打造出让全人类都被淘汰的机器，还有什么会出错吗？”

But I think that would be embarrassingly lame⁵. I think we should be more ambitious -- in the spirit of TED⁶.

但我觉得那样真是差劲到悲哀。我们认为我们应该更有野心--带着TED的精神。

Let's envision a truly inspiring high-tech⁷ future and try to steer⁸ towards it.

让我们来想象一个真正鼓舞人心的高科技未来，并试着朝着它前进。

This brings us to the second part of our rocket metaphor⁹: the steering¹⁰.

这就把我们带到了火箭比喻的第二部分：操控。

We're making AI more powerful, but how can we steer towards a future where AI helps humanity flourish rather than flounder?

我们让人工智能的力量更强大，但是我们要如何朝着人工智能帮助人类未来更加繁盛，而非变得挣扎的目标不断前进呢？

To help with this, I cofounded the Future of Life Institute.

为了协助实现它，我联合创办了“未来生命研究所”。

It's a small nonprofit promoting beneficial technology use,

它是个小型的非营利机构，旨在促进有益的科技使用，

and our goal is simply for the future of life to exist and to be as inspiring as possible.

我们的目标很简单，就是希望生命的未来能够存在，且越是鼓舞人心越好。

You know, I love technology. Technology is why today is better than the Stone Age.

你们知道的，我爱科技。现今之所以比石器时代更好，就是因为科技。

And I'm optimistic that we can create a really inspiring high-tech future... if -- and this is a big if

我很乐观的认为我们能创造出一个非常鼓舞人心的高科技未来...如果，这个“如果”很重要，

if we win the wisdom race -- the race between the growing power of our technology and the growing wisdom with which we manage it.

如果我们能赢得这场关于智慧的赛跑--这场赛跑的两位竞争者便是我们不断成长的科技力量以及我们用来管理科技的不断成长的智慧。

But this is going to require a change of strategy because our old strategy has been learning from mistakes.

但这也需要策略上的改变。因为我们以往的策略往往都是从错误中学习的。

We invented fire, screwed up a bunch of times -- invented the fire extinguisher.

我们发明了火，因为搞砸了很多次--我们发明出了灭火器。

1 brooks   

n.小溪( brook的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Brooks gave the business when Haas caught him with his watch. 哈斯抓到偷他的手表的布鲁克斯时，狠狠地揍了他一顿。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Ade and Brooks exchanged blows yesterday and they were severely punished today. 艾德和布鲁克斯昨天打起来了，今天他们受到严厉的惩罚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

3 complacent   

adj.自满的；自鸣得意的

参考例句：

• We must not become complacent the moment we have some success.我们决不能一见成绩就自满起来。
• She was complacent about her achievements.她对自己的成绩沾沾自喜。

4 obsolete   

adj.已废弃的，过时的

参考例句：

• These goods are obsolete and will not fetch much on the market.这些货品过时了，在市场上卖不了高价。
• They tried to hammer obsolete ideas into the young people's heads.他们竭力把陈旧思想灌输给青年。

5 lame   

adj.跛的，(辩解、论据等)无说服力的

参考例句：

• The lame man needs a stick when he walks.那跛脚男子走路时需借助拐棍。
• I don't believe his story.It'sounds a bit lame.我不信他讲的那一套。他的话听起来有些靠不住。

6 ted   

vt.翻晒，撒，撒开

参考例句：

• The invaders gut ted the village.侵略者把村中财物洗劫一空。
• She often teds the corn when it's sunny.天好的时候她就翻晒玉米。

7 high-tech   

adj.高科技的

参考例句：

• The economy is in the upswing which makes high-tech services in more demand too.经济在蓬勃发展，这就使对高科技服务的需求量也在加大。
• The quest of a cure for disease with high-tech has never ceased. 人们希望运用高科技治疗疾病的追求从未停止过。

8 steer   

vt.驾驶，为…操舵；引导；vi.驾驶

参考例句：

• If you push the car, I'll steer it.如果你来推车，我就来驾车。
• It's no use trying to steer the boy into a course of action that suits you.想说服这孩子按你的方式行事是徒劳的。

9 metaphor   

n.隐喻，暗喻

参考例句：

• Using metaphor,we say that computers have senses and a memory.打个比方，我们可以说计算机有感觉和记忆力。
• In poetry the rose is often a metaphor for love.玫瑰在诗中通常作为爱的象征。

10 steering   

n.操舵装置

参考例句：

• He beat his hands on the steering wheel in frustration. 他沮丧地用手打了几下方向盘。
• Steering according to the wind, he also framed his words more amicably. 他真会看风使舵，口吻也马上变得温和了。