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美国政府继续关门 全球“恐惧指数”上升

With the U.S. government shutdown in its second week and the possibility of an American debt default next week, the global economy is beginning to feel the effects.

美国政府关闭进入第二个星期，下星期可能会发生债务违约，全球经济开始感受到寒蝉效应。

The action, or lack of action, on the U.S. government’s funding crisis is in Washington, but concern about it spans the globe.  One financial market indicator¹ known as the "fear index" jumped 15% on Monday alone.

在美国政府预算危机上采取还是不采取行动，这是华盛顿的问题，可是全球都在担心。仅仅在星期一，金融市场的指标之一“恐惧指数”上升了15%。

But while the headlines look ominous², London-based Wall Street Journal reporter Charles Forelle noted³ that global markets have so far not had the strong negative reaction some had expected.

华尔街日报驻伦敦记者查尔斯·福雷尔指出，虽然报道的标题看上去很不详，可是到目前为止，全球市场并没有像一些人估计的那样出现强烈不良反应。

“If there’s an apocalypse on the horizon, the financial markets don’t see it coming,” he said.

福雷尔说：“如果前景中真有这样的迹象，那么金融市场并不认为会很快发生。”

Global markets have been drifting lower, but have not fallen dramatically.  Still, Forelle warned the enthusiasm over investing will change dramatically if the shutdown continues, and especially if the U.S. government defaults on its debt.

全球市场走低，不过没有剧烈下跌。福雷尔警告说，如果美国政府继续关门，尤其是如果美国政府债务违约，投资热情就会发生巨大改变。

“The other longer, bigger scale issue is the destruction of confidence in the U.S. government and in U.S. treasuries⁴ [securities].  And that’s a much more difficult thing both to measure and to fix,” Forelle said.

福雷尔说：“另外一个影响更大的问题是，美国政府和美国债券的信誉会遭到破坏，衡量和修复信誉要困难得多。”

Such concerns are keenly felt in places like this, the hub of operations at the London investment firm Charles Stanley and Company.  Its chief investment commentator⁵, Garry White, said the room will look very different next week if there is a default.

伦敦投资公司查尔斯·斯坦利公司的营运中心等类似场所，敏锐地感受到这种担忧。这家公司的首席投资评论员格里·怀特说，下星期如果美国债务违约，营运中心就会是一派非常不同的景象。

“Phones would be ringing off the hook," White predicted.  "There would be panic selling as investors⁶ tried to minimize their losses.  And it would be mass panic in the investment community.”

怀特说： “电话铃会响个不停，投资人为了把损失减到最小，会慌忙抛售，投资界会出现严重恐慌。”

Experts say if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling and allow the government to continue routine payments, there would be a cascade⁷ of defaults worldwide, and financial institutions would not know how to set some of their key interest rates.  They say the financial collapse⁸ of five years ago that hurt people around the world would be repeated, and could possibly be worse.

专家说，如果美国国会不提高债务上限，允许政府继续日常支出，全世界就会出现一连串的违约，金融机构会不知道如何制定一些关键的利率，他们说，5年前伤害了全世界的金融危机又会重演，甚至更糟。

White said that prospect⁹ could just be enough to motivate the politicians in Washington to settle their differences.

格里·怀特说，这个可能性应该足以促使华盛顿的政客们解决他们的分歧。

“One would hope that the consequences are so serious that they will sort it out before the deadline arrives. And we think it’s in the interest of people on both sides to resolve this issue before there is some sort of financial Armageddon,” he said.

他说：“人们希望，面对如此严重的后果，他们会在最后期限前达成协议。我们认为，在金融末日来临前解决这个问题，对双方都有利。”

No one in Washington wants that.  But concern is growing about whether the officials involved will do what is necessary to avoid it.

虽然华盛顿没有人希望发生债务违约，可是有关官员是否会采取必要行动避免危机，越来越令人担忧。