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菲律宾台风与气候变化

As another tropical storm bears down on the Philippines just days after Typhoon Haiyan devastated¹ parts of the region, the country’s climate change commissioner² has issued a passionate³ plea for a global deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions⁴. Climate scientists and policymakers offer differing opinions on whether the devastation⁵ in the Philippines is the latest evidence of global warming.

菲律宾刚刚遭受海燕台风的摧残，又面临另一个热带风暴的威胁。菲律宾的气候变化官员恳请国际社会达成一个减排协议。 气候科学家、政策制定者们就菲律宾的灾难是否是全球气候变暖的最新证明发表了看法。

Scientists say Typhoon Haiyan is one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall.

科学家们说，海燕是有史以来登陆的台风中最强的一次。

Some experts say man-made climate change is to blame.

一些专家把这归咎于人为气候变化。

Bob Ward⁶ is from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics.

“There’s certainly strong circumstantial evidence because we know that the strength of tropical cyclones⁷, hurricanes, typhoons depends very much on sea surface temperatures. They act as the fuel. And we’ve got very warm waters in the Pacific at the moment, which have been increasing because of climate change," said Ward.

“肯定有大量证据，因为我们知道，热带风暴、飓风和台风的强度很大程度上取决于海洋表面的温度。海水就像燃料一样。目前太平洋的水温非常高，由于气候变化，水温一直在升高。”

Ward says the intensity⁸ of storms seems to be increasing.

沃德说，风暴的强度似乎也在增加。

“Our models are not very clear at the moment but we might expect in the future that we might even see fewer. But those that do occur will be much stronger than we’re experiencing now," he said.

“目前我们的模型还不太清楚，我们期待未来这种风暴也许会少一些。但是风暴一旦形成，就会比我们现在看到的更强。”

The widespread destruction of infrastructure⁹ means authorities and aid agencies are struggling to distribute food and water.

由于基础设施普遍遭到毁坏，有关当局和救援机构正在努力运送和分发食品和饮水。

Benedict Dempsey of Save the Children says accurate forecasts meant some aid workers were in place when the storm hit.

“救救儿童”组织的登普西说，台风登陆时，一些救援人员就在当地。

“Half a dozen people went actually into the path of the storm in order to be prepared for the response in Tacloban and elsewhere in the Philippines," said Dempsey.

“为了在菲律宾各地做好应急准备，六、七个人当时就在台风经过的地区。”

Dempsey says aid agencies are having to adapt to more frequent natural disasters of this kind.

登普西说，救援机构必须为更频繁地应对这类自然灾害做好准备。

“Between around 2002 and 2011, on average over 260 million people a year are being affected¹⁰ by disasters. And so we’re seeing the reality of these trends acting¹¹ out on the ground, and it’s absolutely something that we’re having to prepare to respond to in the future," he said.

“2002年至2011年间，平均每年都有超过2亿6千万人受到各种灾害的影响。我们看到，这就是现实情况，这绝对是我们未来必须准备应对的局面。”

The Global Warming Policy Foundation - which is skeptical¹² about man-made climate change - says the focus should be on disaster preparation rather than cutting greenhouse gases.  Benny Peiser is the group's director.

全球气候变化政策基金会对人造气候变化一说表示怀疑，认为重点应当是救灾准备，而不是减排。

“This was the 20th tropical storm to have hit the Philippines this year. So this is going to continue no matter what we decide on CO2. These storms will continue," said Peiser.

气候变暖政策基金会的佩瑟说：“这是今年袭击菲律宾的第20个热带风暴。所以，不管我们决定对二氧化碳采取什么行动，这种情况都会继续，风暴会继续发生。”

At climate change talks currently under way in Poland, the Filipino representative made an impassioned plea for an agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

气候变化会议目前正在波兰举行，菲律宾代表在会上恳请就减排问题达成协议。

Scientist Bob Ward says the delegates should pay attention.

科学家沃德说，各国代表应关注这个问题。

“I think this typhoon will focus minds very much on the fact that if we squabble and delay in getting an agreement, we’re going to see more and more of these kind of events with very, very  human costs," said Ward.

“我认为，这次台风会让我们认识到，如果我们继续争吵，迟迟达不成协议，我们会看到更多这类造成人员惨重伤亡的灾害。”

But observers at the Warsaw talks say a deal on cutting emissions still appears a long way off.

但是华沙会议的观察人士说，达成减排协议，看来仍旧遥遥无期。