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普京对乌东策略有别克里米亚

Russian President Vladimir Putin's approach to pro-Russian militants¹ destabilizing southern and eastern Ukraine differs from his strategy on Crimea, where Russian forces took a more active role in breaking away the peninsula from Kyiv.

俄罗斯总统普京对待扰乱乌东和乌南地区稳定的讲俄语激进分子的策略同对待克里米亚的手法有所不同。在克里米亚，俄罗斯部队在使克里米亚半岛脱离乌克兰的过程中发挥了更直接的作用。

Massing Russian soldiers along the Ukrainian border mirrors the troop build-up that preceded Moscow's annexation² of the Crimean peninsula.

俄罗斯军队在乌克兰边界集结的态势很像俄罗斯在吞并克里米亚之前调动部队的情况。

Putin appears to have a different approach, however, to Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the southern and eastern provinces, some of whom want him to send troops to protect them.

但是，普京总统对乌克兰东部和南部讲俄语居民的态度有所不同。其中一些人要求他出兵保护他们。

American University professor Keith Darden said Putin sees those separatists not as future Russians, but more as a lever to influence what happens in Ukraine.

美利坚大学教授吉斯·达顿说，普京把这些分离主义者看作影响乌克兰局势的杠杆，而不是未来的俄罗斯国民。

"Whereas Crimea he saw as a strategic asset that was important to pull away, the strategic value of the south and the east of Ukraine is within Ukraine as a bulwark³ against Kyiv turning further to the West, joining NATO, engaging more actively⁴ with the European Union. So he wants to keep them in Ukraine but more powerful," said Darden.

他说， “他把克里米亚看作必须拿到手的战略要地，而乌克兰南部和东部的战略价值是是在乌克兰内部起到防波堤的作用，阻止基辅进一步转向西方，加入北约，以及和欧盟进行更密切的接触。所以，他希望使他们留在乌克兰，但是有更大的影响。”

Separatists in Donetsk are planning a Crimea-like referendum on leaving Ukraine.

顿涅茨克的分离主义者正在策划举行像克里米亚那样脱离乌克兰的公投。丹尼斯·普西林是分离主义领导人之一。

Denis Pushilin, one of the separatist leaders, said, "The referendum will make it possible for us to build a relationship with any other country, federalization or non-federalization, or just to gain independence."

他说， “公投能够使我们和任何其他国家建立关系，决定实行联邦化或者非联邦化，或者甚至独立。”

Federalism is the most likely way Moscow would seek to maintain its hold on Russian-speakers in the south and east. Such an outcome, though, would give up far too much to Putin, according to Heritage Foundation researcher Ariel Cohen.

联邦化是莫斯科寻求保持对乌东和乌南讲俄语居民影响的最有可能的途径。但是，美国传统基金会的阿里尔·科恩认为，这样的结局对普京让步太大。

"What is really federalization of Ukraine? Federalization of Ukraine is rendering⁵ Ukraine impotent as a nation state.  It is dictating⁶ a constitutional change to a neighboring country. And I am wondering what would federalization mean for Russia itself?" asks Cohen.

科恩说， “乌克兰联邦化的实质到底是什么呢？联邦化会使乌克兰成为更重要的国家，也意味着命令另一个国家修改宪法。我在想，乌克兰的联邦化对俄罗斯本身意味着什么？”

The Russian leader maintains that all Ukrainians should be free to choose their future, dismissing criticism that Moscow imposed the referendum on Crimea that led to annexation.

"If we are being honest and objective, then it will be clear to everyone that it is impossible to force people from their houses, their apartments under a gun and make them go to a polling station to vote," said Putin.

普京说，“如果我们抱着诚实和客观的态度，每个人都不难看清，要想用枪逼着人们走出家门去投票是不可能的。”

Putin said he is open to resuming normal relations with the West. He also said there can be no comparing Kyiv's actions against pro-Russian separatists today with Moscow's campaign against Chechen separatists in the 1990s.

普京说，他随时准备和西方恢复正常关系，但是，不可以把基辅对讲俄语分离主义者的做法同莫斯科在1990年代对待车臣分离主义者的行动相提并论。

"In the North Caucasus we were faced with an aggression⁷ by international terrorism. Those were properly-formed, well-prepared gangs supplied and armed from abroad. That is a big difference," said Putin.

 “在北高加索，我们面临着国际恐怖主义的威胁。那些人是组织有序、准备充分、从国外获得武器装备的帮派。这是很大的差别。”

Reagan Administration Soviet⁸ advisor⁹ John Lenczowski said Putin's approach in Ukraine is rife¹⁰ with Soviet-era tactics.

里根政府的苏联事务顾问约翰·兰茨考斯基说，普京总统现在采取的方式体现了苏联时代的手法。

"Moscow is paranoid. This was a classic Soviet strategic deception¹¹ theme," said Lenczowski. "It is designed to get everybody in the West to believe that we have to handle Moscow with kid gloves. 'We cannot provoke them too much, we cannot resist what they're doing or else it will provoke them and make things worse.'"

兰茨考斯基说，“莫斯科有幻想症。这是典型的苏联式战略欺骗手法，目的是让西方每个人都相信我们必须对莫斯科哄着来，都以为‘我们不可以过于刺激他们，不可以阻止他们所做的事情，否则会刺激他们，使事情更糟。’”

Russia says its troops along the border are not meant to interfere¹² in Ukraine and are there only as a precaution against any spillover of violence.

俄罗斯说，它在乌克兰部署的部队不是为了干预乌克兰，只是防止冲突蔓延的预防措施。