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抗敌主力库尔德人对伊拉克未来存疑

Western countries including the United States have begun arming the Kurdish Peshmerga forces in northern Iraq to aid their battle against extremist Sunni militants² from the Islamic State group.  But there are concerns a heavily-armed Kurdistan Regional Government might seek to declare independence and cause the break-up of the Iraqi state.  The Kurdistan Regional Government says it will only seek greater autonomy from Baghdad.

美国等西方国家开始向伊拉克北部的库尔德“敢死军”提供武装，帮助他们抗击“伊斯兰国”的逊尼派激进分子。然而，人们担心，武装精良的库尔德地区政府可能寻求宣布独立，导致伊拉克国家分裂。库尔德地区政府说，他们只是希望扩大自治。

On the outskirts³ of Irbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, traders display AK-47 assault rifles alongside other aging weapons and ammunition⁴.

Business is booming; after a decade of relative peace, the Kurds in northern Iraq believe their existence is threatened by the Islamic State militant¹ group.

在埃尔比勒的这处武器市场，生意特别红火。在十年相对安宁之后，伊拉克北部的库尔德人觉得，他们的根本生存如今受到了“伊斯兰国”武装分子的威胁。

Lukman Qader is among the hundreds of customers browsing⁵ the market.

“Just like other people I have come here to buy a weapon to defend my family and my homeland,” he said.  “But all the arms here are old and the ammunition is out of date.”

埃尔比勒的库尔德人卢克曼·卡德尔说：“跟其他人一样，我来这里是想买件武器，保卫我的家和我的家乡。不过，所有的武器弹药都是老旧过时的。”

Western arms

The Kurds’ Soviet-era arsenal⁶ is being updated, as several Western countries, including the United States and France, have begun arming the Kurdish Peshmerga forces.

库尔德人苏联时代的武器正在得到更新。几个西方国家，包括美国和法国，开始向库尔德“敢死军”提供武器。

The Kurds have long dreamed of an independent homeland, and the arrival of advanced Western arms could have unintended consequences, says Afzal Ashraf of the Royal United Services Institute in London.

库尔德人长期以来一直梦想着能有独立家园。伦敦皇家联合军种研究所的阿夫扎勒·阿什拉夫说，西方先进武器的涌入可能会有意想不到的后果。

“The Kurdish homeland straddles what is Iraq, what is bits of Iran, and Syria, and Turkey.  And if there are nationalists in the Kurdish Regional Government who want to pursue that agenda with those additional arms and with the additional experience, they could pose a threat to stability in that region,” he said.

他说：“库尔德家园跨越当今的四个国家，包括伊拉克、伊朗的一小部分，还有叙利亚和土耳其。如果库尔德地区政府的民族主义者有了更多武器和经验之后，想要追求独立家园，他们可能对地区稳定构成威胁。”

This week Kurdish forces, backed by the Iraqi army and aided by U.S. airstrikes, seized control of the strategic Mosul Dam from Sunni militants.  The battle against the Islamic State, or ISIS, militants, is uniting rival Kurdish factions⁷, says Zeynep Kaya of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics.

伦敦经济学院中东中心的泽内普·卡亚说，同“伊斯兰国”激进分子的战斗让库尔德对立派系团结到了一起。

“ISIS is bringing the Kurds in Syria and the Kurds in Iraq together, even though the [rival Kurdish factions] KDP and PYD were not on good terms until recently," she said. "Now, the PYD and PKK forces also are helping⁸ Peshmerga.”

他说：“伊斯兰国让叙利亚的库尔德人和伊拉克的库尔德人，甚至直到最近关系还不好的库尔德民主党和民主联盟党走到了一起。如今，民主联盟党和库尔德工人党的武装也在帮助敢死军。”

PKK militants fought a decades-long war for autonomy against the Turkish state.  Peace talks are ongoing⁹.  The Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq would be reluctant to upset Ankara by stirring Kurdish nationalism, says Kaya.

库尔德工人党激进分子为了自治同土耳其政府进行了几十年的战争。和平对话正在进行之中。卡亚说，为了避免刺激土耳其政府，库尔德地区政府不想挑动库尔德民族主义。

Oil wealth

“KRG’s oil exports depend on Turkey," she said. "So the more the Kurdistan Regional Government is increasing its power in the region and within Iraq, the more it is becoming sort of dependent on Turkey.”

他说：“库尔德地区政府的石油出口依靠土耳其。所以，它在地区和伊拉克境内的势力越强大，对土耳其的某种依赖性就越大。”

The oil wealth has caused friction¹⁰ with Iraq's central government.  Economic independence from Baghdad is a key demand of the Kurds, says representative of the Kurdistan Regional Government in London, Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman.

库尔德地区政府的石油财富造成了和中央政府的矛盾。库尔德地区政府驻伦敦代表巴扬·萨米·阿卜杜勒·拉赫曼说：

“They [Baghdad] have tried to centralize control of the oil and gas sector¹¹, we have of course gone against that.  Where Baghdad has failed to control us, they have punished us," she said. "Since January we have not had our budget.  It is a ridiculous situation that today, Kurdistan is facing the most well-armed and rich terrorist organization in the world, and yet we have not had our budget from Baghdad.”

他说：“他们想对油气领域实行中央控制。而我们当然反对。巴格达控制不了我们的时候，就惩罚我们。自从1月份以来，我们一直没有预算。今天的局势很荒唐。库尔德斯坦面对着世界上武装最精良、最富有的恐怖组织，可巴格达却不拨给我们预算。”

If Iraq is to survive as a state, there will have to be big changes, says Abdul Rahman.

阿卜杜勒·拉赫曼说，伊拉克如果做为一个国家生存下来，必须要有重大改变。

“Even after [the Islamists] are pushed out, defeated, and we go back to, let us say business as usual, it will not be business as usual.  The fact is that Iraq has to be regionalized if it is going to stay together,” she said.

他说：“即使‘伊斯兰国’被赶走了，被打败了，我们也不可能一切照旧。事实是，伊拉克要想维持为一个国家，就必须实行地区化。”

The future of Kurdistan will have to wait.  The Kurds, the Iraqi army and the West are united in battle against the Islamic State militants.

不过，在库尔德人、伊拉克军队和西方协力抗击“伊斯兰国”激进分子之际，目前还不是讨论库尔德斯坦未来的时候。