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人口老龄化将减缓全球经济增长

The world is getting older, fast. And as more people retire each year, fewer working-age people will be there to replace them. Bond rating agency Moody’s says that will lead to a decline in household savings¹; reducing global investments - which in turn, will lead to slower economic growth around the world. But experts say it’s not too late to mitigate² the economic impact of the world’s aging populations.

全球人口正在迅速老龄化。每年退休的人越来越多，而能接替他们工作的人却越来越少。债券评级机构穆迪公司称，这一情况将会导致居民储蓄下降，全球投资减少，进而导致全球经济增长放缓。不过，专家表示，要降低世界人口老龄化给经济造成的冲击，现在采取行动还为时不晚。

In Japan - there are special playgrounds for the elderly.

在日本，有专门为老人准备的广场。

In Italy - dance classes for seniors are part of the “good life.”

在意大利，有专门为改善老人生活开设的舞蹈课程。

And in Germany - the rapid pace of retirements³ has become a bigger issue than unemployment.

在德国，退休激增比失业更是个问题。

They are the world’s "Super Aged⁴" nations - the term for countries where at least 20 percent of the population is 65 years or older.

这些国家是世界“超高龄”国家——即全国人口中有至少20%的人已经65岁以上。

“The demographic transition is upon us now and its progressing, by historical standards, quite rapidly," said Elena Duggar, head of Moody's Sovereign Risk Division.

埃琳娜?达格尔是穆迪公司主权风险部门负责人。她说，“以历史标准来看，人口年龄结构的转变正在迅速向我们逼近。”

In five years - six more countries will join the ranks of the super-aged. And by 2030 - that number will rise to 34.

在五年内，又会有六个国家加入超高龄国家的行列。到2030年，这个数字将会升至34。

“That will translate into reductions in labor⁵ supply," Duggar said. "At the same time aging means that the household savings rates will go down, which will negatively impact on investment. Both trends put together would mean that aging will have a significant negative impact on global growth."

达格尔说，“这将会演变成劳动力减少。同时，老龄化代表着居民存款率下降，这将会为投资带来负面影响。这两个趋势共同发生作用，会对全球经济增长产生严重的负面效果。”

Business research group, the Conference Board - says aging could shave as much as one percent off global growth in the next 10 years. Ignoring the coming changes is risky⁶ says economist⁷ Fariborz Ghadar - author of "Global Tectonics - What Every Business Needs to Know."

美国经济研究机构经济咨商会表示，老龄化在未来10年可以抵消多达1%的世界经济增长。经济学家法里博尔兹?加达尔是《全球构造说——每个企业都需要知道的事》一书的作者，他说，无视这种即将到来的改变是有风险的。

“Economic growth rates will slow down, jobs will not be available for the young, there is going to be conflict both internally in certain countries, externally.

“经济增长率会减缓，没有给年轻人的工作机会，一些国家内部、外部都会出现矛盾。”

There’ll be backlash against immigrants and that’s not the kind of world we really want," said Ghadar.

“并且将会出现反移民浪潮，这不是我们所希望看到的世界。”

美国的出生率为平均每一个妇女生1.9个孩子，这其中有移民家庭出生率高的因素。法里博尔兹?加达尔说，如果将美国拉美裔家庭2.3个孩子的出生率考虑在内，这个趋势就显而易见了。

But the solution may be as close as a nation's borders.

不过，解决之道可能近在国家的边界。

"See - the largest addition to the U.S. population is by immigration, it is not by number of children," said economics professor Kishore Kulkarni.

经济教授基肖尔?库尔卡尼说：“我们可以看到，美国人口增加主要是靠移民，而不是新生婴儿。”

In the U.S. - the average birth rate is 1.9 children for every woman - an average bolstered⁸ by higher birth rates in immigrant families. Fariborz Ghadar says the trend is obvious when you consider that the birth rate for Hispanic families in the U.S. is 2.3 children.

美国的出生率为平均每一个妇女生1.9个孩子，这其中有移民家庭出生率高的因素。法里博尔兹?加达尔说，如果将美国拉美裔家庭2.3个孩子的出生率考虑在内，这个趋势就显而易见了。

“We are turning Hispanic. And in fact, what I normally tell my audiences, if you want somebody to take care of you when you’re 90 - you better speak Spanish," he said.

“我们国家人口快西班牙化了。实际上，我通常会告诉我的受众，如果你希望90岁还能有人照顾，你最好会说西班牙语。”

While consumer buying patterns will change as populations age, Kishore Kulkarni believes targeted career training and productivity gains through technology could offset⁹ the decline in workers.

随着人口年龄结构改变，消费者的购买习惯也会发生变化。基肖尔?库尔卡尼认为，进行具体的职业培训和通过科技提高生产力将抵消劳动力数量下降的影响。

"It is a misalignment of demand rather than a total and a drastic change in the demand. And it is a challenge which we can easily accept and tackle as it comes to us," he said.

“与其说这是需求的彻底大转变，不如说这是一种需求错位。不过我们可以轻松面对并处理这个挑战。”

Kulkarni adds that aging will be less of a challenge in countries where elders are seen as assets rather than liabilities. But nearly all the experts say young workers, in the future, will work longer and retire later than seniors today.

库尔卡尼还说，在一些把老年人视为资产而不是负担的国家里，老龄化并不一定是挑战。然而，几乎所有的专家都认为，现在的年轻人将来要比当今的老人工作得更长，退休时间将更晚。