新闻周刊:非洲第一个超级大国的到来比你想象的要快(9)

But Nigeria has a secret weapon: democracy. Academics Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, authors of Why Nations Fail, argue that authoritarian¹ states that free up their economies get a short-term boost, but it doesn't last because sustained success requires "inclusive capitalism²" and democracy. That's what is happening in China now. A wave of autocratic leaders post-Deng hasn't been able to resist reasserting control of the economy and reversing many of his reforms. As they have done so, growth has cooled.

但尼日利亚有一个秘密武器：民主。学者达龙·阿西莫格鲁和詹姆斯·罗宾逊是《为什么国家会失败》的作者，他们认为解放经济的专制国家得到了短期的提振，但它不会持久，因为持续的成功需要“包容的资本主义”和民主。这就是正在发生的事情。改革后的一波专制领导人已经无法抗拒重新控制经济，无法逆转许多改革。在他们这样做的同时，经济增长已经降温。

Nigeria's democracy may be imperfect, but it's democracy. Since the end of military rule in 1999, Nigeria has had five elections of increasing validity. In 2015, an opposition³ candidate won and came to power peacefully—no small achievement in sub-Saharan Africa. An entire generation of Nigerians has no memory of un-democratic government. It has a mostly free press and a vibrant⁴ civil society. Successive civilian⁵ governments have moved to protect democracy by reducing what has traditionally been the greatest threat: the military. They have deliberately⁶ coup-proofed the country by weakening the army, retiring its senior leaders and repositioning it as an internal security force that is scattered⁷ across the country. According to GlobalFirePower.com, the Nigerian army now ranks 44th out of 137 countries, which puts it somewhere between Peru and Denmark, and well behind South Africa.

尼日利亚的民主也许不完美，但毕竟是民主。自1999年军事统治结束以来，尼日利亚已经举行了五次日益有效的选举。2015年，一名反对派候选人赢得大选，并以和平的方式上台执政，这在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区取得了不小的成就。整整一代尼日利亚人都没有不民主政府的记忆。尼日利亚拥有一个基本自由的媒体和一个充满活力的公民社会。历届文官政府都采取行动保护民主，减少了历来最大的威胁：军队。他们故意削弱军队，让高级领导人退休，并将其重新定位为分散在全国各地的国内安全部队，以此来保护国家。根据GlobalFirePower.com的数据，尼日利亚军队在137个国家中排名第44位，位于秘鲁和丹麦之间，远远落后于南非。

Investors⁸ aren't moving into Nigeria yet, but they're watching. The talk used to be about the economic potential of the BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Now it's MINT—Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey.

投资者还没有进入尼日利亚，但他们正在观望。过去，投资者谈论的是金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)的经济潜力。现在是MINT——墨西哥，印度尼西亚，尼日利亚和土耳其。

"Right now, Nigeria is seen as just too hard, but there's a wall of money waiting to come in if it gets it right," Aiyesimoju says. According to Orji, Nigeria is "just a few tweaks away" from being an attractive place for investors. "Look at South Korea," he says. "All it took was changing one thing—the landholding law." (That change allowed larger farms, which enabled farmers to invest in mechanization.)

“现在，尼日利亚被认为是太困难了，但如果做对了，就会有一大堆钱等着进来，”埃耶西莫朱表示。根据奥尔吉的说法，尼日利亚离成为一个对投资者有吸引力的地方“只有几步之遥”。“看看韩国，”他说。“只需要改变一件事——土地持有法。”(这一变化使规模更大的农场得以存在，从而使农民能够投资于机械化。)

1 authoritarian   

n./adj.专制(的)，专制主义者，独裁主义者

参考例句：

• Foreign diplomats suspect him of authoritarian tendencies.各国外交官怀疑他有着独裁主义倾向。
• The authoritarian policy wasn't proved to be a success.独裁主义的政策证明并不成功。

2 capitalism   

n.资本主义

参考例句：

• The essence of his argument is that capitalism cannot succeed.他的论点的核心是资本主义不能成功。
• Capitalism began to develop in Russia in the 19th century.十九世纪资本主义在俄国开始发展。

3 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

4 vibrant   

adj.震颤的，响亮的，充满活力的，精力充沛的，(色彩)鲜明的

参考例句：

• He always uses vibrant colours in his paintings. 他在画中总是使用鲜明的色彩。
• She gave a vibrant performance in the leading role in the school play.她在学校表演中生气盎然地扮演了主角。

5 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

6 deliberately   

adv.审慎地；蓄意地；故意地

参考例句：

• The girl gave the show away deliberately.女孩故意泄露秘密。
• They deliberately shifted off the argument.他们故意回避这个论点。

7 scattered   

adj.分散的，稀疏的；散步的；疏疏落落的

参考例句：

• Gathering up his scattered papers,he pushed them into his case.他把散乱的文件收拾起来，塞进文件夹里。

8 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会